It’s crazy to try and predict an award so famous for jawdroppers, but — oh, what the hell — here are my (utterly insane?) Golden Globe picks anyway.
For the past three years, Globe voters correctly picked the eventual Oscar Best Picture and I suspect that they want to do so again. Since “Boyhood” is clearly out front with academy members, I’m picking it here, too, but not with much confidence. While chatting with HFPA members, I’ve counted up a lot of votes for “The Theory of Everything,” “Selma” and “The Imitation Game.”
The Oscar race for Best Actor is a close matchup between Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton, but they compete in separate categories at the Globes. Redmayne will take this one easily and must give the best acceptance speech if he wishes to overtake Keaton on the Oscars track.
Nearly everybody’s betting on Julianne Moore, including me, but I’m leery of Jennifer Aniston, who has campaigned far more aggressively. Aniston is normally shy and reclusive, but she’s canvassed Hollywood in recent weeks like a savvy Bronx politico, charming the masses while pumping hands, kissing babies and slapping backs. Yes, Moore is ahead to win the Oscar for Best Actress and so, logically, should take this category first, but she’s also nominated for Best Comedy/Musical Actress. Voters may choose, instead, to pick her for that cheeky role in “Maps to the Stars,” which many of them prefer to her turn in “Still Alice.” At least that’s what they’ve told me when I’ve chatted them up at cocktail parties. But I haven’t heard that from enough of them to muster the guts to go for the upset here.
Voters adore “Birdman,” which has the most nominations (7). Can’t lose here.
Keaton is a shoo-in and, when he wins, he better give the performance of his life at the podium or else Redmayne will snatch the Oscar from him.
Lots of HPFA members are nuts about Moore in “Maps,” but they’re probably more apt to reward her for Best Drama Actress because “Still Alice” is her Oscar vehicle. Adams finally won her first Globe ever last year for “American Hustle” after four previous losses and she’ll probably return to the podium and claim this same award again. But beware: Emily Blunt threatens.
En route to inevitable Oscar victory, Simmons will make a pit stop here to pick up this Globe.
Look over the list of past winners in this category and a pattern is clear: Voters usually embrace esteemed veterans. Inarritu is overdue. He got robbed when “Babel” won Best Drama Picture of 2006 and voters preferred veteran Marty Scorsese (“The Departed”) for the director’s laurels.
X – “Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
Every nominee except “Gone Girl” has a real shot to win. I’m betting on “Birdman” because voters love the film so much.
A Disney movie has won this category 7 times in the past 8 years, so that bodes well for “Big Hero 6” to continue the streak. I’m betting on “Lego” because it’s the movie that makes viewers most happy.
“The Imitation Game”
X – “The Theory of Everything”
The music in “Theory” was transporting, so that’s my pick, but voters may see this category as a place they can reward “Imitation Game.” “Birdman’s” score is controversial (drum solos mixed with pickup classical music) and was disqualified at the Oscars, but could join a sweep for that popular pic.
“Big Eyes” from “Big Eyes” (Lana Del Ray)
X – “Glory” from “Selma” (John Legend, COmmon)
“Mercy Is” from “Noah” (Patty SMith, Lenny kaye)
“Opportunity” from “Annie“
“Yellow Flicker Beat” from “The Hunger Games, Mockingjay Part 1” (Lorde)
It’s “Glory” vs. “Big Eyes.” Here is a good place for Globers to hail “Selma.”
Up until a few days ago I was betting on “House of Cards” to win since it’s holding a Globes I.O.U. Last year it should’ve prevailed, but voters were busy paying off those I.O.U.s they owed to “Breaking Bad.” Now I hear that HFPA members are furious with Kevin Spacey for some mysterious reason. Did he refuse to give them a press conference? Or fail to show up for it? All I know is that members are mad, so that means some other TV show will win. “The Affair” is the new shiny toy here. They gave it tons of nominations, so it’s getting my vote.
With Spacey out of the running, Owen is most likely to take this. Voters usually go for film stars in the TV races and he’s the sexiest one here. (Sorry, Liev!)
If “The Affair” wins Best Drama Series, one of its stars will triumph, too. I think it’s Wilson.
“Orange” competed as a drama series last year and got squeezed by “Breaking Bad’s” grip on the top races. It should do better over here on the comedy side, but it needs to be leery of “Jane the Virgin” and “Transparent.”
Donning drag, Tambor gives the most showy performance. Gervais pulled off an upset here before and could do so again considering this is his first nomination since doing such a notorious job hosting the Globes several times.
Since I’m betting on “Orange” for comedy series, I need to pick Schilling since those two awards usually go together, but Rodriguez could snatch this. She’s the kind of sexy new TV superstar who voters often crown.
No explanation needed.
BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
X – Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge”
Frances O’Connor, “The Missing”
Allison Tolman, “Fargo”
Of all the movie stars in this category, I’m betting on McDormand because she got the best reviews. Watch out for Frances O’Connor, though. Voters may want to give “The Missing” something.
Murray is also nominated over in the film categories, but this is the Globe he’ll probably win as a consolation for losing for “St. Vincent.”
BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTRESS
X – Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey”
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective”
Recent Emmy champ Uzo is all the rage, so she’ll probably take this, but Bates pulled off an upset at the Emmys and could do it again. That’s less likely to happen here, though, considering “American Horror Story” isn’t nominated for Best Mini.