Tom O’Neil’s fearless, 100% perfect Golden Globes predictions

It’s crazy to try and predict an award so famous for jawdroppers, but — oh, what the hell — here are my (utterly insane?) Golden Globe picks anyway.

FILM AWARDS

BEST DRAMA FILM
X – “Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything

For the past three years, Globe voters correctly picked the eventual Oscar Best Picture and I suspect that they want to do so again. Since “Boyhood” is clearly out front with academy members, I’m picking it here, too, but not with much confidence. While chatting with HFPA members, I’ve counted up a lot of votes for “The Theory of Everything,” “Selma” and “The Imitation Game.”
 

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler”
David Oyelowo, “Selma”
X – Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

The Oscar race for Best Actor is a close matchup between Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton, but they compete in separate categories at the Globes. Redmayne will take this one easily and must give the best acceptance speech if he wishes to overtake Keaton on the Oscars track.
 

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, “Cake”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
X – Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

Nearly everybody’s betting on Julianne Moore, including me, but I’m leery of Jennifer Aniston, who has campaigned far more aggressively. Aniston is normally shy and reclusive, but she’s canvassed Hollywood in recent weeks like a savvy Bronx politico, charming the masses while pumping hands, kissing babies and slapping backs. Yes, Moore is ahead to win the Oscar for Best Actress and so, logically, should take this category first, but she’s also nominated for Best Comedy/Musical Actress. Voters may choose, instead, to pick her for that cheeky role in “Maps to the Stars,” which many of them prefer to her turn in “Still Alice.” At least that’s what they’ve told me when I’ve chatted them up at cocktail parties. But I haven’t heard that from enough of them to muster the guts to go for the upset here.
 

BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY FILM
X – “Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent

Voters adore “Birdman,” which has the most nominations (7). Can’t lose here.
 

BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY ACTOR
Ralph Fiennes, “The Grand Budapest Hotel
X – Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Bill Murray, “St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, “Inherent Vice”
Christoph Waltz, “Big Eyes

Keaton is a shoo-in and, when he wins, he better give the performance of his life at the podium or else Redmayne will snatch the Oscar from him. 
 

BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY ACTRESS
X – Amy Adams, “Big Eyes”
Emily Blunt, “Into the Woods
Helen Mirren, “The Hundred-Foot Journey”
Julianne Moore, “Maps to the Stars”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Annie

Lots of HPFA members are nuts about Moore in “Maps,” but they’re probably more apt to reward her for Best Drama Actress because “Still Alice” is her Oscar vehicle. Adams finally won her first Globe ever last year for “American Hustle” after four previous losses and she’ll probably return to the podium and claim this same award again. But beware: Emily Blunt threatens. 

 

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
X – J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

En route to inevitable Oscar victory, Simmons will make a pit stop here to pick up this Globe.

 

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
X – Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Jessica Chastain, “A Most Violent Year”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

Being the Oscar heir apparent, Arquette will probably prevail, but Emma Stone and Meryl Streep are serious threats.
 

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Ava Duvernay, “Selma”
David Fincher, “Gone Girl”
X – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”

Look over the list of past winners in this category and a pattern is clear: Voters usually embrace esteemed veterans. Inarritu is overdue. He got robbed when “Babel” won Best Drama Picture of 2006 and voters preferred veteran Marty Scorsese (“The Departed”) for the director’s laurels.

 

BEST SCREENPLAY
X – “Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“Gone Girl”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”

Every nominee except “Gone Girl” has a real shot to win. I’m betting on “Birdman” because voters love the film so much.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
X – “The Lego Movie

A Disney movie has won this category 7 times in the past 8 years, so that bodes well for “Big Hero 6” to continue the streak.  I’m betting on “Lego” because it’s the movie that makes viewers most happy.

 

BEST SCORE
“Birdman”
“Gone Girl”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
X – “The Theory of Everything”

The music in “Theory” was transporting, so that’s my pick, but voters may see this category as a place they can reward “Imitation Game.” “Birdman’s” score is controversial (drum solos mixed with pickup classical music) and was disqualified at the Oscars, but could join a sweep for that popular pic.
 

BEST SONG
“Big Eyes” from “Big Eyes” (Lana Del Ray)
X – “Glory” from “Selma” (John Legend, COmmon)
“Mercy Is” from “Noah” (Patty SMith, Lenny kaye)
“Opportunity” from “Annie
“Yellow Flicker Beat” from “The Hunger Games, Mockingjay Part 1” (Lorde)

It’s “Glory” vs. “Big Eyes.” Here is a good place for Globers to hail “Selma.”
 

TV AWARDS

BEST DRAMA SERIES
X – “The Affair
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
House of Cards

Up until a few days ago I was betting on “House of Cards” to win since it’s holding a Globes I.O.U. Last year it should’ve prevailed, but voters were busy paying off those I.O.U.s they owed to “Breaking Bad.” Now I hear that HFPA members are furious with Kevin Spacey for some mysterious reason. Did he refuse to give them a press conference? Or fail to show up for it? All I know is that members are mad, so that means some other TV show will win. “The Affair” is the new shiny toy here. They gave it tons of nominations, so it’s getting my vote.

 

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
X – Clive Owen, “The Knick”
Liev Schrieber, “Ray Donovan”
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”
James Spader, “The Blacklist”
Dominic West, “The Affair”

With Spacey out of the running, Owen is most likely to take this. Voters usually go for film stars in the TV races and he’s the sexiest one here. (Sorry, Liev!)

 

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Claire Danes, “Homeland
Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife
X – Ruth Wilson, “The Affair”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

If “The Affair” wins Best Drama Series, one of its stars will triumph, too. I think it’s Wilson.
 

BEST COMEDY SERIES
Girls
Jane the Virgin
X – “Orange is the New Black
Silicon Valley
Transparent

“Orange” competed as a drama series last year and got squeezed by “Breaking Bad’s” grip on the top races. It should do better over here on the comedy side, but it needs to be leery of “Jane the Virgin” and “Transparent.”

 

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Louis C.K., “Louie
Don Cheadle, “House of Lies
Ricky Gervais, “Derek”
William H. Macy, “Shameless
X – Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent

Donning drag, Tambor gives the most showy performance. Gervais pulled off an upset here before and could do so again considering this is his first nomination since doing such a notorious job hosting the Globes several times.

 

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Lena Dunham, “Girls
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”
X – Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black

Since I’m betting on “Orange” for comedy series, I need to pick Schilling since those two awards usually go together, but Rodriguez could snatch this. She’s the kind of sexy new TV superstar who voters often crown.

 

BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES
X – “Fargo
The Missing
The Normal Heart
Olive Kitteridge
True Detective

Most pundits are betting on “True Detective,” but I’m going out on a limb for “Fargo” since it really was the better mini.

 

BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR
Martin Freeman, “Fargo”
Woody Harrelson, “True Detective”
X – Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo”

No explanation needed.

 

BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
X – Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge
Frances O’Connor, “The Missing
Allison Tolman, “Fargo”

Of all the movie stars in this category, I’m betting on McDormand because she got the best reviews. Watch out for Frances O’Connor, though. Voters may want to give “The Missing” something.

 

BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart”
Alan Cumming, “The Good Wife”
Colin Hanks, “Fargo”
X – Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”
Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan”

Murray is also nominated over in the film categories, but this is the Globe he’ll probably win as a consolation for losing for “St. Vincent.”

 

BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTRESS
X – Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective”

Recent Emmy champ Uzo is all the rage, so she’ll probably take this, but Bates pulled off an upset at the Emmys and could do it again. That’s less likely to happen here, though, considering “American Horror Story” isn’t nominated for Best Mini.

 

ALSO READ:

Golden Globes: Complete list of film and TV nominations

Golden Globe nominations (Film): Good (‘Selma’), Bad (no ‘Top Five’) & Ugly (where’s Rene Russo?)

Golden Globe nominations (TV): Good (‘Jane the Virgin’), Bad (no Emmy Rossum) & Ugly (Amy Poehler diss)

Shocking Golden Globe snubs: Angelina Jolie, Bradley Cooper, Jessica Chastain and …

Forum posters rant and rave about Golden Globes nominations: ‘Shocked,’ ‘upset,’ and ‘excited’

Golden Globes nominations: ‘Birdman’ leads with 7; ‘Boyhood,’ ‘The Imitation Game’ at 5 each

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