Grammy mystery: Can Meghan Trainor end male winning streak for Best New Artist?

grammy award meghan trainor new artist

Will Meghan Trainor win Best New Artist at the Grammys? Sure she’s one of the biggest new hit-makers of the last year, but she’ll have to overcome a four-year streak of male winners. But Grammy history is on her side. Solo women have won Best New Artist 24 of 55 years and have been especially formidable in recent times. As you can see below, solo women prevailed in all but four races between 1996 and 2010:

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1971 – Carly Simon
1973 – Bette Midler
1975 – Natalie Cole
1977 – Debby Boone
1979 – Rickie Le Jones
1981 – Sheena Easton
1984 – Cyndi Lauper
1985 – Sade
1987 – Jody Watley
1988 – Tracy Chapman
1990 – Mariah Carey
1993 – Toni Braxton
1994 – Sheryl Crow
1996 – LeAnn Rimes
1997 – Paula Cole
1998 – Lauryn Hill
1999 – Christina Aguilera
2000 – Shelby Lynne
2001 – Alicia Keys
2002 – Norah Jones
2006 – Carrie Underwood
2007 – Amy Winehouse
2008 – Adele
2010 – Esperanza Spalding

Compare that to solo men, who have won Best New Artist only 12 times, including just twice in the last 22 years. But since Spalding’s win five years ago, the award has gone to male acts every time: Bon Iver (2011), Fun. (2012), Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (2013) and Sam Smith (2014).

Now another male artist, Irish rocker Hozier, is this year’s frontrunner according to our combined predictions. He leads with odds of 10/3, followed by Trainor with 11/2 odds and then more male artists rounding out the top five: Sam Hunt (15/2 odds), Fetty Wap (9/1) and Walk the Moon (14/1).

Ironically, Hozier and Trainor are leading this New Artist contest even though both were nominated for top Grammys last year. Hozier was nominated for Song of the Year for his breakthrough hit “Take Me to Church,” while Trainor contended for both Record and Song of the Year for “All About That Bass.” But neither of them released their debut albums until this eligibility period (October 1, 2014 – September 30, 2015), making them eligible for the New Artist prize in this cycle.

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Who do you think will win? Make your own Grammy predictions now to the right or at the bottom of this post, and you could win a $100 Amazon gift card as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Grammy nominees).

Last year, our Top 24 Users and all Gold Derby Users tied with an accuracy rate of 58.75% when it came to predicting the Grammy nominations, while Editors trailed with 42.50% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

Which group will be victorious this year? User jhaddad got the top score predicting the nominations last year with a 75% accuracy rate. As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

Photos: Meghan Trainor. Credit: Erik Pendzich/Rex/REX

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