It's difficult for any newcomer to make an impact in the music industry, and it's harder still to make such an impact that you earn nominations in all four general-field categories at the Grammys: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist. Only 10 artists have ever accomplished that feat, including two in the last three years. They are:
1967 – Bobbie Gentry
1979 – Christopher Cross
1984 – Cyndi Lauper
1988 – Tracy Chapman
1990 – Mariah Carey
1997 – Paula Cole
2001 – India.Arie
2007 – Amy Winehouse
2012 – Fun.
2014 – Sam Smith
All but one of those (India.Arie) went on to win Best New Artist, so sweeping up nominations in all four races is key to identifying the Grammy frontrunner. But can any of this year's New Artist hopefuls crack the other three races?
As of this writing, the five artists we're predicting for New Artist, in descending order of their racetrack odds, are Hozier (10/3 odds), Meghan Trainor (11/2), Sam Hunt (8/1), Fetty Wap (9/1) and Walk the Moon (14/1). But none of them are currently among our forecast contenders for Album, Record or Song.
We asked our forum posters to weigh in: can anyone break through in all four categories? Read some of their comments below, then click here to join the debate. And make sure to predict Best New Artist at the bottom of this post using our easy drag-and-drop menu.
PoweR: Not this year. There are literally no new artists that have had that type of impact.
Jade: No. This was an incredibly weak year for new artists.
James14: No new artists will be nominated in all four general field categories at all. The closest bet you have will be Sam Hunt, as he's a contender at least in the big three, but may end up with only a Best New Artist nomination. I think there's a slight (slight) chance that Leon Bridges or Elle King could make it into ROTY or SOTY for "Smooth Sailin'" or "Ex's and Oh's," but both are extreme long shots. Fetty Wap could make it into ROTY, but won't make AOTY. Those are the only real new artist contenders I can even see making other GF categories at all.
Moviefan61794: All four? No. Sam Hunt has the best chance to take the most noms in the general field for new artists, but at most, I only see him getting three out of four. Would love to be pleasantly surprised, though.
Who do you think will win New Artist? Make your own Grammy predictions now to the right or at the bottom of this post, and you could win a $100 Amazon gift card as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year's Grammy nominees).
Last year, our Top 24 Users and all Gold Derby Users tied with an accuracy rate of 58.75% when it came to predicting the Grammy nominations, while Editors trailed with 42.50% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)
Which group will be victorious this year? User jhaddad got the top score predicting the nominations last year with a 75% accuracy rate. As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it's important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
Fun. Photo Credit: Brian J. Ritchie/Hotsauce/REX
Sam Smith Photo Credit: RMV/REX