Independent Spirit Award predictions: ‘Boyhood,’ Michael Keaton, …

Our predictions in 11 categories at Saturday’s Independent Spirit Awards are based on a combination of four sets of forecasts at Gold Derby: Experts, Editors, the Top 24 Users (highest scorers predicting last year’s winners), and All Users.

See our predictions below, listed in order of their racetrack odds (expected winners are in gold). Click on each category title to be taken to an overview of that race.

If you haven’t made your predictions yet, there’s still time. Click here to visit our predictions center, where you can enter your picks in each category listed below, or use the easy drag-and-drop menu at the bottom of this post to get started and be in with a chance to win $100 if you get the highest score. 

Which Oscars contender for Best Picture will win first at Indie Spirits?

BEST FEATURE
“Boyhood” – 1/4
“Birdman” – 11/2
“Selma” – 50/1
“Whiplash” – 50/1
“Love is Strange” – 100/1

BEST DIRECTOR
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” – 2/5
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman” – 9/2
Ava DuVernay, “Selma” – 14/1
Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash” – 50/1
David Zellner, “Kumiko the Trasure Hunter” – 100/1

BEST MALE LEAD
Michael Keaton, “Birdman” – 1/4
David Oyelowo, “Selma” – 6/1
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler” – 33/1
John Lithgow, “Love is Strange” – 50/1
Andre Benjamin, “Jimi: All is By My Side” – 100/1

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice” – 1/5
Marion Cotillard, “The Immigrant” – 8/1
Jenny Slate, “Obvious Child” – 50/1
Tilda Swinton, “Only Lovers Left Alive” – 50/1
Rinko Kikuchi, “Kumiko the Treasrue Hunter” – 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash” – 1/10
Edward Norton, “Birdman” – 25/1
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood” – 33/1
Alfred Molina, “Love is Strange” – 100/1
Riz Ahmed, “Nightcrawler” – 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood” – 1/10
Jessica Chastain, “A Most Violent Year” – 25/1
Emma Stone, “Birdman” – 33/1
Carmen Ejogo, “Selma” – 50/1
Andrea Suarez Paz, “Stand Clear of the Closing Doors” – 100/1

BEST SCREENPLAY
“Nightcrawler” – 2/7
“A Most Violent Year” – 11/2
“Love is Strange” – 25/1
“Big Eyes” – 50/1
“Only Lovers Left Alive” – 100/1

BEST FIRST FEATURE
“Nightcrawler” – 1/5
“Dear White People” – 10/1
“Obvious Child” – 33/1
“A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night” – 50/1
“She’s Lost Control” – 100/1

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
“Dear White People” – 2/11
“The One I Love” – 8/1
“She’s Lost Control” – 50/1
“Appropriate Behavior” – 50/1
“Little Accidents” – 100/1

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Birdman” – 1/10
“Selma” – 25/1
“The Immigrant” – 50/1
“A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night” – 50/1
“It Felt Like Love” – 100/1

BEST EDITING
“Boyhood” – 8/13
“Whiplash” – 19/10
“Nightcrawler” – 50/1
“A Most Violent Year” – 50/1
“The Guest” – 100/1

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