Emmy nominations are less than a week away — make your last-minute predictions now! — so let’s take a moment to analyze this year’s race for Best Comedy Actor. As a refresher, last year we correctly predicted four of the six nominees in this category. We missed both William H. Macy (“Shameless”), who was in our seventh slot, and Ricky Gervais (“Derek”), who was down in our ninth position, opting instead for Andy Samberg (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”) and Robin Williams (“The Crazy Ones”).
As you can see from the chart above, we are predicting that four of TV’s leading funnymen will return to the race this year: Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”), Louis C.K. (“Louie”), Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes”) and Macy. The other two slots will be filled by new contenders Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”) and Billy Crystal (“The Comedians”).
Do you agree that these six are locks for nominations on July 16? And which of the others in our Top 10 are the strongest possibilities and which are on the bubble?
Scroll down to see a breakdown of the leading contenders, according to our exclusive Emmy odds that are derived from predictions made by Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who did the best predicting last year’s Emmys line-up) and All Users.
And then be sure to make your own predictions and be in with a chance to win prizes, bragging rights and a place of honor in next year’s Top 24 Users.
Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”)
Overall odds to win: 10/3
If anyone is going to take down four-time champ Parsons, it’ll be Tambor. This one-time featured player is a recent recipient of both the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice TV Award, making him the frontrunner heading into Emmy season. But is Tambor’s role as a transgender father funny enough to win in a comedy category?
Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”)
Overall odds to win: 4/1
Parsons is a four-time winner of Best Comedy Actor, having defeated everyone in his path except for fellow CBS sitcom star Jon Cryer (“Two and a Half Men”), who won the race in 2012. The one thing both Parsons and Cryer have in common is that they both come from half-hour sitcoms that rely on the laughs over the drama. That could be key to Parsons taking down Tambor.
Louis C.K. (“Louie”)
Overall odds of winning: 11/2
While C.K. is a sure bet for a nomination, his chances of winning are tough considering that no one has ever won an Emmy for playing themselves in this category. Check out our informative photo gallery below on others who’ve lost for playing themselves.
William H. Macy (“Shameless”)
Overall odds to win: 13/2
After successfully making the switch from drama to comedy, Macy claimed victory at the SAG Awards earlier this year for his role as a drunken father on the Showtime dramedy. If he’s nominated, he’ll have an hour-long episode to submit to judges, which could give him the leg up as size often matters in Hollywood.
Billy Crystal (“The Comedians”)
Overall odds to win: 12/1
Despite tepid critical reviews for the freshman FX laffer, Crystal has a knock-out episode submission — “Billy’s Birthday” — that could actually win him the Emmy. His only difficulty is receiving that nomination against such heavy-hitters.
Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes”)
Overall odds to win: 14/1
Even though he’s never won an Emmy, LeBlanc has six nominations to show for his career: three for “Friends” and three for “Episodes.” Fans are in agreement that this season of “Episodes” was one of LeBlanc’s strongest yet, so might the Emmys finally add him to their winner’s list?
Don Cheadle (“House of Lies”)
Overall odds to win: 25/1
Cheadle has been nominated for this Showtime series for the past three years, but with extra competition this year, he could fall out of Emmy’s good graces. At least he has a Golden Globe victory (2013) to show for this character.
Thomas Middleditch (“Silicon Valley”)
Overall odds to win: 50/1
With “Silicon Valley” on the rise at awards shows, Middleditch could go along for the ride and receive his first Emmy nomination. His show’s recent victory for Best Comedy Series at the Critics’ Choice TV Awards surely doesn’t hurt.
Will Forte (“The Last Man on Earth”)
Overall odds to win: 50/1
If voters actually watched “The Last Man on Earth,” Forte should be a shoo-in for a nomination considering how he absolutely dominated those first couple episodes. But the show is still untested at the Emmys, making his appearance in this race a bit of a question mark.
Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”)
Overall odds to win: 100/1
Anderson is one of the few leading men who could actually be nominated for a network show, along with Parsons and Forte. “Black-ish” is also a critical and ratings hit for ABC and, hey, his name begins with an “A” meaning it’ll appear at the very top of that lengthy Emmy ballot.
Make all your Emmy predictions and you could win a place of honor on our leaderboard, a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys line-up), and one of three contest prizes: $500 for first place, $300 for second place, and $200 for third place. Prizes will be bestowed as gift certificates to be redeemed at Amazon. See our contest rules for more info.
Average Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
The Top 24 Users did the best at predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) when competing against Gold Derby’s Editors (77.68%), all Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). Which group will be victorious this year?
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