Jeffrey Tambor may want to get an acceptance speech ready. He's the overwhelming favorite to win Best Comedy Actor at the Emmys for his role as a transgender woman coming out late in life in Amazon's "Transparent." And it's about time. This is his seventh nomination, and he's never won.
He earned four past bids for "The Larry Sanders Show" (1993, 1996-1998) and another two for "Arrested Development" (2004-2005). All of those previous nominations were for Best Comedy Supporting Actor; "Transparent" marks his first recognition for a leading role.
He won the Golden Globe for this performance back in January, and he followed that in May with a victory at the Critics' Choice TV Awards. The only major prize he has lost so far was the TCA Award for Individual Achievement in a Comedy. That honor went to Amy Schumer for "Inside Amy Schumer," whom he won't have to face off against at the Emmys.
Also, the TCA's Individual Achievement award isn't strictly a performance honor, so voters likely also took into account Schumer's work as a writer, director and producer of her series. That's consistent with the group's past honoring of other multi-hyphenates like Tina Fey ("30 Rock") and Louis C.K. ("Louie").
Either way, our predictors don't seem to be swayed by the TCA result. He's far ahead of the competition in our predictions, with 2/11 odds based on support from all 12 of our polled Experts, six out of seven Editors, 21 of our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did best predicting last year's winners) and the vast majority of All Users.
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Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby's Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year's Emmys). Our Users scored 51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)
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Photo: Jeffrey Tambor and Amy Landecker in "Transparent." Credit: HBO/Everett/REX