‘Transparent’ star Jeffrey Tambor is on track to finally win his overdue Emmy

jeffrey tambor transparent emmys

Jeffrey Tambor may want to get an acceptance speech ready. He's the overwhelming favorite to win Best Comedy Actor at the Emmys for his role as a transgender woman coming out late in life in Amazon's "Transparent." And it's about time. This is his seventh nomination, and he's never won.

Emmys experts predict Comedy Series battle between 'Veep' and 'Transparent'

He earned four past bids for "The Larry Sanders Show" (1993, 1996-1998) and another two for "Arrested Development" (2004-2005). All of those previous nominations were for Best Comedy Supporting Actor; "Transparent" marks his first recognition for a leading role.

He won the Golden Globe for this performance back in January, and he followed that in May with a victory at the Critics' Choice TV Awards. The only major prize he has lost so far was the TCA Award for Individual Achievement in a Comedy. That honor went to Amy Schumer for "Inside Amy Schumer," whom he won't have to face off against at the Emmys.

Also, the TCA's Individual Achievement award isn't strictly a performance honor, so voters likely also took into account Schumer's work as a writer, director and producer of her series. That's consistent with the group's past honoring of other multi-hyphenates like Tina Fey ("30 Rock") and Louis C.K. ("Louie").

Either way, our predictors don't seem to be swayed by the TCA result. He's far ahead of the competition in our predictions, with 2/11 odds based on support from all 12 of our polled Experts, six out of seven Editors, 21 of our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did best predicting last year's winners) and the vast majority of All Users.

Do you agree with our racetrack odds? Is Tambor a lock, or might there be an upset?

Make your predictions and you could win one of our three prizes ($500, $300 and $200 Amazon gift certificates) as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year's Emmys).

Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. 

Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby's Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year's Emmys). Our Users scored  51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

Which group will be victorious this year?

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it's important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

Photo: Jeffrey Tambor and Amy Landecker in "Transparent." Credit: HBO/Everett/REX

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