Ultimate Emmys heavyweight bout: Jon Hamm (‘Mad Men’) vs. everyone else

Following the announcement of the 2015 Emmy nominations, Jon Hamm (“Mad Men“) skyrocketed to the top of our Best Drama Actor chart based on the predictions made by Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users and All Users. As of this writing, he has overwhelming 2/7 combined odds to win his first — yes, his very first — Emmy Award on September 20.

But are we overestimating Hamm’s chances? After all, no “Mad Men” actor or actress has ever won an Emmy (see full list of losing bids below). Or perhaps we’re simply underestimating the rest of this year’s leading men, which include Kyle Chandler (“Bloodline”), Jeff Daniels (“The Newsroom”), Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”), Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”) and Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”).

Join our feisty forums to discuss who will win this Emmy race

If Hamm wins Emmy #1 for “Mad Men,” that means academy voters will have ignored the results of recent precursors like the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards (which favored Spacey) as well as the Critics’ Choice TV Awards (which feted Odenkirk). The jury is still out on the Television Critics’ Association Awards, which gave Hamm his first nomination since 2012. Results of those kudos will be revealed August 8.

Because of the changes in Emmy voting this year (see Tom O’Neil’s official breakdown here), we might see a more popular consensus choice this time around, as opposed to a vote strictly based on episode selections, which have always caused Hamm trouble. That could sway the sentimental vote in Hamm’s direction, as it’s fairly known around Hollywood that Hamm has never won a trophy before.

Speaking of Emmy episodes, in our poll asking which episode Hamm should submit, the results were overwhelming: 86% opted for the finale (“Person to Person”), with 7% favoring the penultimate episode (“The Milk and Honey Route”). All other options from the final season had less than 3% of our users’ votes.

Two men in the running for the Drama Actor crown have actually beaten Hamm before: Chandler, who prevailed in 2011 for the series finale of “Friday Night Lights,” and Daniels, who scored a win on his first nomination for “The Newsroom” in 2013. Can they do it again? Our odds-makers give Chandler 25/1 odds and Daniels 100/1.

And, interestingly enough, Odenkirk’s “Better Call Saul” is a spin-off of “Breaking Bad,” a show from the same writers and directors that helped Bryan Cranston beat Hamm on four separate occasions (2008, 2009, 2010, 2014). Odenkirk currently comes in second place with odds of 9/1, so it looks like he may be in the dark horse position to take down Hamm.

Spacey is a two-time Oscar winner who has a few knock-out episodes to submit this year. With his  recent victories at the Globes and SAG, he currently has odds of 16/1 to win.

Then there’s Schreiber, who’s currently sitting at the bottom of the pack with 100/1 odds.

Gold Derby editors’ reactions to Emmy nominations: OMG, hooray and huh?

Complete list of “Mad Men” acting losses:

2008 Emmys (Season 1)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (“The Wheel”)
Supporting Actor John Slattery (“Long Weekend”)
Guest Actor Robert Morse (“Nixon vs. Kennedy”)

2009 Emmys (Season 2)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (“The Mountain King”)
Lead Actress Elisabeth Moss (“Meditations in an Emergency”)
Supporting Actor John Slattery (“Six Month Leave”)

2010 Emmys (Season 3)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (“The Gypsy and the Hobo”)
Lead Actress January Jones (“The Gypsy and the Hobo”)
Supporting Actor John Slattery (“The Gypsy and the Hobo”)
Supporting Actress Christina Hendricks (“Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency”)
Supporting Actress Elisabeth Moss (“Love Among the Ruins”)
Guest Actor Robert Morse (“Shut the Door. Have a Seat.”)

2011 Emmys (Season 4)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (“The Suitcase”)
Lead Actress Elisabeth Moss (“The Suitcase”)
Supporting Actor John Slattery (“Hands and Knees”)
Supporting Actress Christina Hendricks (“The Summer Man”)
Guest Actor Robert Morse (“Blowing Smoke”)
Guest Actress Cara Buono (“Chinese Wall”)
Guest Actress Randee Heller (“The Beautiful Girls”)

2012 Emmys (Season 5)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (“The Other Woman”)
Lead Actress Elisabeth Moss (“The Other Woman”)
Supporting Actor Jared Harris (“Commissions and Fees”)
Supporting Actress Christina Hendricks (“The Other Woman”)
Guest Actor Ben Feldman (“Dark Shadows”)
Guest Actress Julia Ormond (“The Phantom”)

2013 Emmys (Season 6)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (“In Care Of”)
Lead Actress Elisabeth Moss (“The Better Half”)
Supporting Actress Christina Hendricks (“A Tale of Two Cities”)
Guest Actor Harry Hamlin (“A Tale of Two Cities”)
Guest Actor Robert Morse (“For Immediate Release”)
Guest Actress Linda Cardellini (“Man With a Plan”)

2014 Emmys (Season 7, Part 1)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (“The Strategy”)
Supporting Actress Christina Hendricks (“The Strategy”)
Guest Actor Robert Morse (“Waterloo”)

2015 Emmys (Season 7, Part 2)
Lead Actor Jon Hamm (TBA)
Lead Actress Elisabeth Moss (TBA)
Supporting Actress Christina Hendricks (TBA)

Emmy outrages! Top 20 bitchiest comments from our forums

Will Hamm win his first Emmy for “Mad Men”? Make your own Emmys picks now starting with this category to the right or at the bottom of this post.

You could win one of our three prizes ($500, $300 and $200 Amazon gift certificates) as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys line-up).

Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. 

Register/log in to your Gold Derby account so you can also compete to predict the Tonys, “Game of Thrones” and more.

Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s Emmys). Our Users scored  51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

Which group will be victorious this year?

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

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