Emmys rematch: Will Kyle Chandler (‘Bloodline’) crush Jon Hamm (‘Mad Men’) again?

Get ready for an Emmys rematch four years in the making, as Kyle Chandler (“Bloodline“) and Jon Hamm (“Mad Men“) are once again predicted to duke it out for the gold. The last time these two leading men faced off in 2011, Chandler won the trophy for the final season of “Friday Night Lights,” while Hamm was left holding nothing but an empty “Suitcase.”

Do you think either of them will win Best Drama Actor this year? Hurry — make your predictions and you could win our $1,000 prize as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a leading role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys).

Will Amy Poehler and Jon Hamm finally lose their Emmy virginity?

According to our exclusive odds — drawn from the predictions of our Editors, Top 24 and readers just like you — both Chandler and Hamm will be bested by Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”). The two-time Oscar champ has odds of 10/3 to win his first Emmy.

Hamm sits in second place with odds of 4/1, followed by Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) at 15/2 and then Chandler at 9/1. 

For the record, I’m banking on Chandler to win at this early stage of the derby. (See all of my Emmy predix here.) There’s no way anyone can beat him if he submits the “Part 12” episode of “Bloodline” to Emmy judges. He’s. That. Good.

When Gold Derby Senior Editor Daniel Montgomery chatted with Chandler last month, he told the “Bloodline” star that his 2011 Emmy victory for “Friday Night Lights'” swan song “seemed like an upset that year.” (Watch the interview below.)

Hey, Daniel: I actually envisioned that upset for Chandler, but no one listened to little old me. Back before Gold Derby’s predictions center came about, we had a rudimentary scoring system — see it here — that predicted Hamm would win the Emmy with leading odds of 10/3. While still in the pre-noms phase of 2011, Chandler was way down in our seventh place position with 20/1 odds.

Did our odds-makers underestimate Chandler that year, or were we simply putting too much faith in Hamm?

In the seven cycles of “Mad Men,” the cast has reaped 34 Emmy bids and lost every single one of them. That reveals an enormous disconnect between Emmy voters and the show. They like its stars enough to nominate them year after year, but they clearly don’t love them.

One caveat worth mentioning: Perhaps Chandler claimed victory in 2011 because voters wanted to give him a goodbye hug as his show was ending. Might that same criteria help Hamm this year as “Mad Men” bids farewell to television? Voters might feel an emotional pull to finally reward Hamm, while Chandler’s on a brand new show so there’s no urgency to give him another Emmy just now.

In our TV message boards, our savvy forum posters are currently debating this hot Emmys topic. Tony_DiMeo says, “Back in 2011 jaws were dropped when Kyle Chandler won best lead actor in drama instead of the beloved Jon Hamm.” Marcus Snowden responds, “I’m going to wait until Hamm has a definite winning episode because it’s too early at this point. I am predicting Chandler and Hamm to be nominated, though.” And Taloson concedes, “If he submits ‘Chapter 12’ Chandler could be really well-positioned. I’m not positive that Weiner will give Hamm a tape as great as ‘The Suitcase,’ but I sure hope so.” See more comments here.

Make your Emmys picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Drama Actor winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. See contest rules.

Kyle Chandler & Ben Mendelsohn (‘Bloodline’) dish:
Sibling rivalry, sea lice and swimsuit models [Exclusive Video]

Average Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

The Top 24 Users did the best at predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) when competing against Gold Derby’s Editors (77.68%), all Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). Which group will come out victorious this year?

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4 thoughts on “Emmys rematch: Will Kyle Chandler (‘Bloodline’) crush Jon Hamm (‘Mad Men’) again?

  1. My brain just can’t process the notion that Hamm won’t win. Though I don’t think he’s had a winning episode that’s aired so far this season, so that makes me nervous. You’ve got me a little more piqued on Bloodline than I was before. It’s in my Netflix queue, but right now I’m pretty hooked on finishing up Breaking Bad DVD episode commentaries, and I’ve still got two seasons of that to finish up before I’m going to start anything else. Bloodline will probably be next.

  2. It’ll be weird for Jon Hamm not to win an Emmy for MM but who could ever have faulted his competition year after year? There was just no winning against Cranston and Chandler in their respective years. I predict Hamm will triumph for a comedic guest role before he wins for Drama.

  3. I believe I led the Gold Derby Emmy Leader Board the year Mr. Chandler won his first Emmy. Of course, there was no cash prize back then. 🙁 Yes, I called it and placed a $500 bet on Kyle for the win against long odds. It’s pretty obvious he’ll be nominated again. And I would also like to see Timothy Olyphant back in the race (as he was that same year), against Mr. Hamm and Mr. Chandler for his outstanding final season of Justified.

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