Get ready for an Emmys rematch four years in the making, as Kyle Chandler (“Bloodline“) and Jon Hamm (“Mad Men“) are once again predicted to duke it out for the gold. The last time these two leading men faced off in 2011, Chandler won the trophy for the final season of “Friday Night Lights,” while Hamm was left holding nothing but an empty “Suitcase.”
Do you think either of them will win Best Drama Actor this year? Hurry — make your predictions and you could win our $1,000 prize as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a leading role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys).
According to our exclusive odds — drawn from the predictions of our Editors, Top 24 and readers just like you — both Chandler and Hamm will be bested by Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”). The two-time Oscar champ has odds of 10/3 to win his first Emmy.
Hamm sits in second place with odds of 4/1, followed by Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) at 15/2 and then Chandler at 9/1.
For the record, I’m banking on Chandler to win at this early stage of the derby. (See all of my Emmy predix here.) There’s no way anyone can beat him if he submits the “Part 12” episode of “Bloodline” to Emmy judges. He’s. That. Good.
When Gold Derby Senior Editor Daniel Montgomery chatted with Chandler last month, he told the “Bloodline” star that his 2011 Emmy victory for “Friday Night Lights'” swan song “seemed like an upset that year.” (Watch the interview below.)
Hey, Daniel: I actually envisioned that upset for Chandler, but no one listened to little old me. Back before Gold Derby’s predictions center came about, we had a rudimentary scoring system — see it here — that predicted Hamm would win the Emmy with leading odds of 10/3. While still in the pre-noms phase of 2011, Chandler was way down in our seventh place position with 20/1 odds.
Did our odds-makers underestimate Chandler that year, or were we simply putting too much faith in Hamm?
In the seven cycles of “Mad Men,” the cast has reaped 34 Emmy bids and lost every single one of them. That reveals an enormous disconnect between Emmy voters and the show. They like its stars enough to nominate them year after year, but they clearly don’t love them.
One caveat worth mentioning: Perhaps Chandler claimed victory in 2011 because voters wanted to give him a goodbye hug as his show was ending. Might that same criteria help Hamm this year as “Mad Men” bids farewell to television? Voters might feel an emotional pull to finally reward Hamm, while Chandler’s on a brand new show so there’s no urgency to give him another Emmy just now.
In our TV message boards, our savvy forum posters are currently debating this hot Emmys topic. Tony_DiMeo says, “Back in 2011 jaws were dropped when Kyle Chandler won best lead actor in drama instead of the beloved Jon Hamm.” Marcus Snowden responds, “I’m going to wait until Hamm has a definite winning episode because it’s too early at this point. I am predicting Chandler and Hamm to be nominated, though.” And Taloson concedes, “If he submits ‘Chapter 12’ Chandler could be really well-positioned. I’m not positive that Weiner will give Hamm a tape as great as ‘The Suitcase,’ but I sure hope so.” See more comments here.
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