BIGGEST JUMPS IN OSCAR PREDICTIONS THIS WEEK
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant“) solidifed his lead in the Best Actor race over Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs“) as his film finally screened for our Oscar experts drawn from major media outlets such as Entertainment Weekly, HuffPo and Variety. This five-time Oscar also-ran had started off this awards season far out in front for his performance as a frontiersman bent on revenge in Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu‘s revisionist Western. First to overtake him was Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl“), then Johnny Depp (“Black Mass“) and finally Fassbender who by late October held a lead among our experts by a vote of 12 to 5 over Leo.
DiCaprio has rallied and now has the backing of 14 of the 21 experts at Gold Derby (Oscarwatchers at Yahoo, USA Today, Entertainment Weekly, etc.). That’s up by three from last week and boosts his odds of winning to 23-to-10 (from 3-to-1).
Six weeks ago, Matt Damon didn’t even make the top five for his performance in the blockbuster sci-fi epic “The Martian.” Today, with his film continuing to score at the box office, Damon is sitting solidly in third. While he doesn’t have any first-place votes, we are ranking him higher on our ballots and he now has odds of 7-to-1 to pick up a bookend to his 1998 Oscar for scripting “Good Will Hunting.”
BIGGEST DROP OF THE WEEK
Fassbender wowed with his portayal of Apple’s patron saint and jumped into first place back in mid-September and held onto the lead till last week when DiCaprio caught up. Since then he has lost two more of his supporters as Tim Gray (Variety) and Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) switched to DiCaprio. Fassbender’s odds of winning have slid from 3-to-1 to 4-to-1.
To blame: Danny Boyle‘s crackling biopic stalled at the box office when it wide on Oct. 23. That’s caused some of our pundits to rethink their predictions.
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