Oscar predictions update: Mark Rylance (‘Bridge of Spies’) is now Best Supporting Actor frontrunner

mark rylance bridge of spies odds

Of all top races at the Oscars, few saw as much upheaval over the last week as Best Supporting Actor. We had been debating whether Mark Ruffalo or Michael Keaton would win for current Best Picture frontrunner "Spotlight," but the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice and SAG Awards all snubbed Keaton, and only Critics' Choice recognized Ruffalo. So what does that mean? We have a new Oscar frontrunner: Mark Rylance in "Bridge of Spies."

How many of the 13 performers with Critics' Choice, SAG and Golden Globe
nominations will contend at Oscars?

Rylance is one of only two actors to earn Supporting Actor noms from all three awards groups over the last week – the other is Michael Shannon ("99 Homes") – and he's the only one of those two who stars in a top contender for a Best Picture nomination ("Spies" ranks seventh in our Best Picture rankings), which makes him the logical choice for the top slot.

Rylance was in fourth place on December 6, before any of these precursor nominations were announced. Now that he has pulled off this triple play, he leads with odds of 4/1 based on the combined predictions of Expert film journalists we've polled, along with Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year's Oscar nominations and the thousands of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

Sylvester Stallone ("Creed") has moved up to second place with 5/1 odds, followed by Keaton with 11/2 odds, Idris Elba ("Beasts of No Nation") with 6/1 odds and Ruffalo with 10/1 odds.

Rylance is a three-time Tony-winner for his work on stage, but this would be his first Oscar nomination and win. Also notable, he would be only the second actor to win an Oscar for a Steven Spielberg film, following Daniel Day-Lewis's Best Actor victory for "Lincoln" in 2012.

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"Bridge of Spies" photo credit: Walt Disney Pictures

4 thoughts on “Oscar predictions update: Mark Rylance (‘Bridge of Spies’) is now Best Supporting Actor frontrunner

  1. Horrifying racial slurs aside, whoever that is at the bottom is dead wrong. Like Daniel said, only Rylance and Michael Shannon got all three nominations, Christian Bale missed out on Critic’s Choice. I do think he has a chance to get a nomination, but in an extremely crowded year like this anything could happen. This has always been a place for heated but civil discussion, so do us all a favor and please leave.

  2. Did Christian Bale have another meltdown, this time at his keyboard instead of movie set (*see bottom post) ?! It’s obvious the Best Supporting Actor is wide open this year, and whichever five do get nominated, I predict the eventual winner to be considered a mild upset, like Paul Dano or Jabob Tremblay. Mixes things up and for once, maybe no guaranteed winner beforehand…

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