I’ve addressed how the Golden Globes’ love for musicals could help “Into the Woods” in the race for Best Musical/Comedy Picture, but as much as they love musicals, they love Meryl Streep even more, so why isn’t she the frontrunner to win Best Film Supporting Actress?
Well, it’s because Patricia Arquette has so far seemed unstoppable for her 12-years-in-the-making role as the struggling mother of the main character in “Boyhood.” She has already won Best Supporting Actress prizes from film critics groups across the country – Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Florida, Kansas City, New York, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Washington D.C. – not to mention our neighbors in the north in Toronto. She even won the lead category from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.
It’s possible Arquette could march more or less uncontested all the way to the Oscar podium, much like other dominant supporting winners in recent years like Mo’Nique (“Precious”) and Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“). The Golden Globes love to anticipate Oscars, so she should be inevitable there too.
But Queen Meryl has a unique power over the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. She holds the record for the most acting wins (eight) and the most nominations (a staggering 29), and though we’re not expecting her to win the Oscar for “Into the Woods” (we currently rank her third with 11/2 odds), she has won plenty of Globes that didn’t ultimately result in Oscars, including recent prizes for “Julie and Julia,” “The Devil Wears Prada,” and “Adaptation.”
The Globes are also frequently swayed by pure star-power. That probably helped Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle“) take this category last year against the eventual Oscar-winner, newcomer Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave“). Though Arquette has some star-power of her own – including three previous Globe bids for the TV series “Medium” – few can match Streep in that department.
Nevertheless, our predictions suggest an easy win for Arquette, who leads with overwhelming 2/9 odds. Emma Stone (“Birdman“) is second with 9/1 odds. And Streep is a distant third with 33/1 odds. Are we right to be betting so heavily on Arquette, or are we underestimating Streep?
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