Our predictors are divided over the MTV Movie Award for Best Comedic Performance. Most are betting on one of two action-comedy heartthrobs: Channing Tatum in “22 Jump Street” or Chris Pratt in “Guardians of the Galaxy.” So who has the edge?
Gold Derby’s Editors are split down the middle. Chris Beachum, Rob Licuria and Paul Sheehan pick Tatum for the win, even though the actor hasn’t had much luck at the MTV Movie Awards in years past. He won the Trailblazer Award in 2014, but he has lost all 11 of his previous competitive bids. This year, he’s up for four more awards between “Jump Street” and “Foxcatcher.” Will his luck finally improve?
Marcus Dixon, Matt Noble and I say Pratt will prevail. Like Tatum, he is also nominated four times this year, but Pratt has never been nominated before at the MTV Movie Awards, so it’s harder to judge where he stands with fan voters. But he had a major breakthrough year with roles in the blockbusters “Guardians” and “The Lego Movie,” and he’s got another one coming up in the big-budget sequel “Jurassic World.”
But while we Editors disagree on the winner, we all rank Tatum and Pratt either first or second.
Our Users are just as divided. Hundreds are predicting the race, but 45% pick Tatum while 42% are backing Pratt, leaving scant support for the rest of the field.
However, our Top 24 Users (the best predictors at last year’s awards) are a little more decisive. 15 of them think Tatum will prevail, compared to just eight favoring Pratt. Those eight are: BerryBest, JosephAlejandroBaello, JOSHUA, Espinosa89, DAN_QUIXOTE, ogrostov, TomWasnock and last year’s predictions champ JDMintz, who vastly outscored the rest of us by correctly forecasting 65% of the winners (I had a lowly 36% by comparison). Is he on the right track?
One top user is going out on a limb for Kevin Hart (“The Wedding Ringer“). Hart was nominated in this category last year for “Ride Along,” but lost to Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street“). Will he fare better against a different lineup of nominees? He’s one of the most successful stand-ups currently working and is better known for comedy than Tatum or Pratt, so fans may decide to vote for them in other categories and give this prize to Hart.
None of our Editors or Top 24 Users are predicting the remaining nominees in the race: Rose Byrne (“Neighbors“) or Chris Rock (“Top Five“). Byrne is the only actor in this category with a previous competitive win. She took Best Gut-Wrenching Performance in 2012 with the cast of “Bridesmaids.”
When the predictions of our Editors, Top 24 Users, and All Users are combined, Tatum is out front (even odds), while Pratt is close behind (7/5), Hart is third (20/1), Byrne is fourth (33/1) and Rock trails in fifth (50/1).
Overall, last year’s Top 24 team didn’t do any better than Editors or Users – we all scored 35.71% correct, down from the previous year when we all forecast 50% of winners, which was down from the year before that, when the Top 24 and All Users scored 66.67% correct and Editors had 58.33%.
That means all of Gold Derby’s predictors are hoping to make a comeback, and you can help. If you think you know who will win this year’s MTV Movie Award races, click here to make your predictions. Your picks will be pooled together to generate our official racetrack odds, and if you have this year’s best predictions, you’ll win a $100 Amazon gift card (if you qualify according to our contest rules).
And don’t forget to use your big bets. Longshots pay out bigger if they upset, so if you place your two 200-point bets and one 500-point bet on a 100/1 underdog and they win, you score even higher. We use those scores to break ties if multiple users have the highest predictions percentage, so don’t take them for granted.
Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Daytime Emmys, Primetime Emmys, “The Voice,” “Survivor,” “The Amazing Race,” “Dancing with the Stars,” “American Idol” and more.