Last year’s battle for Best Fight at the MTV Movie Awards ended with one of the night’s most shocking upsets: Orlando Bloom and Evangeline Lilly won for battling orcs in “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” even though we had all but counted them out, giving them 50/1 odds. Will this year’s result be just as unexpected?
Chris Evans and Sebastian Stan sure hope not, since they’re the frontrunners for their on-screen face-off as the title characters in “Captain America: The Winter Soldier.” It would be the first win for Stan, but Evans won this category just two years ago for playing Captain America; he was honored alongside Robert Downey Jr., Mark Ruffalo, Chris Hemsworth, Scarlett Johansson and Jeremy Renner for taking on Tom Hiddleston‘s Loki in “The Avengers.”
Five out of six Gold Derby Editors (myself included) are predicting Evans and Stan, while Rob Licuria is going out on a limb for Seth Rogen and Zac Efron in “Neighbors.” That’s a strong possibility given the popularity of both actors: Efron is a three-time MTV Movie Award-winner, while Rogen won Best Musical Moment last year for “This is the End.” However, slapstick combat rarely wins this category. In fact, the last broad comedy to prevail was “Rush Hour 2” in 2002.
Our Top 24 Users (the best predictors at last year’s awards) are more divided. 15 of them favor the “Captain America” duo, while six are backing Efron and Rogen. Those six are: MEdmonds03, Espinosa89, DAN_QUIXOTE, Junk, ogrostov and last year’s best user JDMintz, who wiped the floor with the rest of us by correctly forecasting 65% of the winners (I had a lowly 36% by comparison). But even JDMintz didn’t anticipate last year’s surprise: he ranked “The Hobbit’s” Bloom and Lilly dead last.
One of our Top 24, JosephAlejandroBaello, is predicting an upset victory for Dylan O’Brien and Will Poulter (“The Maze Runner“), and that may be a savvy call. O’Brien has never been nominated at the MTV Movie Awards before, but Poulter has fan voters wrapped around his finger. Not only did he win two of his three bids last year – Breakthrough Performance and Best Kiss for “We’re the Millers” – he also won BAFTA’s audience-voted Rising Star Award in 2013 against high-profile breakouts Lupita Nyong’o, Dane DeHaan, and Lea Seydoux. We underestimate him at our peril.
“Birdman” rivals Michael Keaton and Edward Norton are also predicted by one top user, BerryBest, while Felipe Miranda says “22 Jump Street” stars Jonah Hill and Jillian Bell will take it. But they too might be disadvantaged by the bias against slapstick.
When the predictions of our Editors, Top 24 Users, and All Users are combined, “Captain America” is out front (4/7 odds), while “Neighbors” is second (4/1), “22 Jump Street” is third (14/1), “Birdman” is fourth (25/1) and “The Maze Runner” trails in fifth (33/1).
Overall, last year’s Top 24 team didn’t do any better than Editors or Users – we all scored 35.71% correct, down from the previous year when we all forecast 50% of winners, which was down from the year before that, when the Top 24 and All Users scored 66.67% correct and Editors had 58.33%.
That means all of Gold Derby’s predictors are hoping to make a comeback, and you can help. If you think you know who will win this year’s MTV Movie Award races, click here to make your predictions. Your picks will be pooled together to generate our official racetrack odds, and if you have this year’s best predictions, you’ll win a $100 Amazon gift card (if you qualify according to our contest rules).
And don’t forget to use your big bets. Longshots pay out bigger if they upset, so if you place your two 200-point bets and one 500-point bet on a 100/1 underdog and they win, you score even higher. We use those scores to break ties if multiple users have the highest predictions percentage, so don’t take them for granted.
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