MTV Movie Awards predictions: ‘Hunger Games’ and ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’ divide users

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1” will win Movie of the Year at the MTV Movie Awards according to our Top 24 Users. Our Top 24 were the highest-scorers when predicting last year’s awards, and just over half of them (13) favor the penultimate installment of the dystopian saga starring Jennifer Lawrence, giving it 21/20 odds.

The previous “Hunger Games” film, “Catching Fire,” won Movie of the Year in 2014. Before that, the first “Hunger Games” was nominated in 2012, but lost. That was because it was up against the “Twilight” juggernaut, which took top honors for the fourth time in a row that year.

But 11 of the Top 24 disagree with the consensus, and of those, seven favor the sci-fi actioner “Guardians of the Galaxy” instead, giving it 13/5 odds. “Guardians” comes into these awards with the most nominations (seven), and the last time a Marvel movie competed in the top race, it won (“The Avengers,” 2013).

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The remaining four top users expect a surprise from the young-adult adaptation “The Fault in Our Stars,” which tied “Guardians of the Galaxy” with seven bids. They give it 5/1 odds.

None of our Top 24 are predicting any of the other five nominees: “American Sniper,” “Boyhood,” “Gone Girl,” “Selma,” or “Whiplash.”

However, our Top 24 are at odds with the rest of our users, who place “Guardians” out front with 8/5 odds. That result would go against recent history. A female-driven young-adult franchise has won every year but one since 2009, starting with the “Twilight” saga (2009-2012) and continuing with “Hunger Games: Catching Fire” last year.

Yes, “The Avengers” prevailed in 2013, but that was a gap year for teen fantasies; would the superhero extravaganza still have won if it had faced “Twilight” or “Hunger Games”?

Before “Twilight,” films like “Guardians of the Galaxy” were far more common among MTV’s winners. Before 2009, the winners included action-adventure blockbusters like “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (2007) and “Transformers” (2008) and male-led comedies like “Napoleon Dynamite” (2005) and “Wedding Crashers” (2006). “Guardians” fits that mold perfectly, but have fangirls permanently supplanted fanboys as MTV’s most powerful voting bloc?

Who do you think will win? Use our drag-and-drop menu below to predict Movie of the Year. Click here to make your picks in other MTV Movie Awards races, as well as the Primetime Emmys, ACM Awards, and reality shows like “Survivor” and “Dancing with the Stars.”

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