Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl“) may have lost the Best Actress Oscar to Julianne Moore‘s turn as an Alzheimer’s sufferer in “Still Alice,” but she’s going to get her revenge at the MTV Movie Awards. She’s the strong favorite to win Best Villain.
By nominating her in this race, MTV sort of spilled the beans about the character she plays in “Gone Girl”: a wife who goes missing but (SPOILER ALERT) turns out to be a sociopathic con artist. That performance has earned her a trio of MTV bids this year; she’s also up for Breakthrough Performance and Scared-As-S**t Performance.
A who’s who of memorable fiends have won this race over the years, starting with three femmes fatales like Pike: Rebecca De Mornay in “The Hand that Rocks the Cradle” (1992), Jennifer Jason Leigh in “Single White Female” (1993) and Alicia Silverstone in “The Crush” (1994).
Other famous champs include Kevin Spacey‘s serial killer in “Seven” (1996), Mike Myers as Dr. Evil in the “Austin Powers” franchise (1998, 2000), Oscar-winning villain turns by Denzel Washington (“Training Day,” 2002) and Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight,” 2009), and Tom Hiddleston‘s Loki in “The Avengers” (2013).
Five out of six Gold Derby Editors (myself included) are forecasting a victory for Pike. The lone dissenter is Chris Beachum, who thinks J.K. Simmons will continue his awards romp for his Oscar-winning role as an abusive music teacher in “Whiplash.” The acclaimed indie wasn’t as widely seen as “Gone Girl,” which grossed $167 million domestically, but judging from the recent award season, any viewers who watched Simmons’s performance might be hard-pressed to vote against him.
Like our Editors, most of our Top 24 Users (the best predictors at last year’s awards) are betting on Pike – 16 of them, to be exact, including last year’s predictions champ, JDMintz, who vastly outscored the rest of us by correctly forecasting 65% of the winners (I had a lowly 36% by comparison).
Two of them say Meryl Streep will prevail as the witch in the Disney musical “Into the Woods“: JosephAlejandroBaello and babypook. Though Streep has conquered just about every other industry honor she has competed for, she’s never won an MTV Movie Award. Her only previous nomination was another Best Villain bid for “The Devil Wears Prada” in 2007; she lost to Jack Nicholson‘s ruthless mob boss in “The Departed.”
When the predictions of our Editors, Top 24 Users, and All Users are combined, Pike is out front (4/9 odds), while Simmons is second (9/2), Streep is third (16/1), Dinklage is fourth (33/1) and Bell trails in fifth (50/1).
Overall, last year’s Top 24 team didn’t do any better than Editors or Users – we all scored 35.71% correct, down from the previous year when we all forecast 50% of winners, which was down from the year before that, when the Top 24 and All Users scored 66.67% correct and Editors had 58.33%.
That means all of Gold Derby’s predictors are hoping to make a comeback, and you can help. If you think you know who will win this year’s MTV Movie Award races, click here to make your predictions. Your picks will be pooled together to generate our official racetrack odds, and if you have this year’s best predictions, you’ll win a $100 Amazon gift card (if you qualify according to our contest rules).
And don’t forget to use your big bets. Longshots pay out bigger if they upset, so if you place your two 200-point bets and one 500-point bet on a 100/1 underdog and they win, you score even higher. We use those scores to break ties if multiple users have the highest predictions percentage, so don’t take them for granted.
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