Oscar predictions: Experts vs. Top 24 Users clash over Best Picture, Best Actress

When it came to predicting last year's Oscar nominations, our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who had done the best predicting the 2013 nominations) led the way with an accuracy rate of 76.67% while the Experts (journalists who cover this beat year-round for major media like Variety, USA Today and Yahoo) got 71.11%. That difference of more than five points has our pro pundits determined to do better than any other group this year. By comparison, our in-house panel of Editors scored 74.44% and all Users had 68.09%. (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

With our experts numbering 22 this year, it is relatively easy to compare their predictions with that of the  Top 24 Users. They disagree on what will win Best Picture. Our pro pundits are forecasting a victory for "Spotlight" while the best of our users are touting "The Revenant." And they do battle over Best Actress as well, with our experts giving the edge to ingenue Brie Larson ("Room") while the Top 24 tout two-time Oscar champ Cate Blanchett in "Carol."  

While the two sides agree on the winners of the other half dozen top Academy Awards, they do wrangle over who are likeliest to play spoilers in these races. Below, a breakdown of their number-one votes in each of the top eight races. (Click on each group name to see the full rankings by all in that category.)

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1. "Spotlight" – 8
2. "Joy" – 5 
3. "The Martian" – 3 

Top 24 Users
1. "The Revenant" – 6
2. "Spotlight" – 5
3. "Joy" – 5

1. David O. Russell, "Joy" – 9
2. Tom McCarthy, "Carol" – 4
3. Alejandro G. Inarritu, "The Revenant" – 3

Top 24 Users
1. David O. Russell, "Joy" – 8
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, "The Revenant" – 5
3. Tom McCarthy, "Carol" – 3

1. Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs" – 10
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant" – 7
3. Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"  – 2

Top 24 Users
1. Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs" – 14
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant" – 5
3. Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"  – 3

1. Brie Larson, "Room" – 13
2. Cate Blanchett, "Carol" – 5
3. Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy" – 4

Top 24 Users
1. Cate Blanchett, "Carol" – 9
2. Brie Larson, "Room" – 6
3. Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy" – 5

1. Michael Keaton, "Spotlight" – 8
2. Idris Elba, "Beasts of No Nation" – 5
3. Mark Ruffalo, "Spotlight" – 3

Top 24 Users
1. Michael Keaton, "Spotlight" – 10
2. Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies" – 5
3. Idris Elba, "Beasts of No Nation" – 2

1. Rooney Mara, "Carol" – 14
2. Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl" – 4
3. Kate Winslet, "Steve Jobs" – 3

Top 24 Users
1. Rooney Mara, "Carol" – 18
2. Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl" – 3
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight" – 2

1. "Spotlight" – 9
2. "Joy" – 7
3. "Inside Out" – 3


Top 24 Users
1. "Spotlight" – 10
2. "Joy" – 7
3. "The Hateful Eight" – 4

1. "Steve Jobs" – 16
2. "Room" – 2
3. "Carol" – 1

Top 24 Users
1. "Steve Jobs" – 17
2. "Carol" – 4
3. "The Revenant" – 2

Oscar odds and rankings: Combined Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users & All Users

What are your predictions for Oscar nominations?

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Get started by making your picks for Best Picture to the right or at the bottom of this post. 

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As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it's important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

6 thoughts on “Oscar predictions: Experts vs. Top 24 Users clash over Best Picture, Best Actress

  1. Why are they fighting? All the movies are good. There is no reason to clash and make enemies with fellow movie lovers.

  2. The Revenant will not win Best Picture, in fact, I doubt if it will get nominated by BAFTA. As BAFTA has become an Oscar predictor in reason years, it have big influence on the outcomes of the big categories. BAFTA has only five slots for Best Picture, that means some good films could be left out. I predict these five films to be nominated by BAFTA, that is if it keeps five slots: “Spotlight”, “Carol”, “Joy”, “Steve Jobs” and “Selma”(“Selma” was not elIgible for BAFTA last year). The only films that might break into that group are Box Office smash “The Martian” directed by Ridley Scott, “Mad Max: Fury Road” as BAFTA is not scared to nominate that type of film and maybe “Room” because BAFTA likes small films with great performances and heart.

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