Oscar experts: Michael Fassbender (‘Steve Jobs’) jumps further ahead of Leonardo DiCaprio (‘The Revenant’)

The Oscar race for Best Actor is turning into a runaway for Michael Fassbender ("Steve Jobs")  with 9 of our 19 experts from Yahoo, Variety, Rollling Stone, IMDB and other top media predicting him to prevail. "Michael Fassbender is fascinating in a complex role, rarely sympathetic but always interesting," notes Tim Gray (Variety). "He's kind of miscast, which makes his performance even more impressive." See the individual predictions of all 19 Oscar Experts here.

That support for Fassbender in Danny Boyle's biopic of the computer whiz translates into odds of 3/1 for this Irish import to win his first Oscar; he contended in supporting two years ago for "12 Years a Slave," losing to Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyers Club").

Four experts are betting on four-time also-ran Leonardo DiCaprio to win for "The Revenant." As Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair) wryly observes, "Hey, now that Jon Hamm has his Emmy, maybe Leo can finally get his Oscar.” His odds of winning for his work as a vengeful hunter in Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Western are 9/2. 

Below: Rankings for the top Best Actor contenders with odds to win and commentary from our experts.

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#1. Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs" (9 Experts; Odds to win: 3/1)
Oscar winner Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire") handles helming and Oscar champ Aaron Sorkin ("The Social Network") adapted Walter Isaacson's best-selling bio.

Edward Douglas (ComingSoon): "One of the best movies I’ve seen this year and I realized that within the first five minutes.  Sorkin’s screenplay is as good as the one for 'The Social Network' and I fully expect him to win a second Oscar for it and Boyle and his cast do a fantastic job with the material which is more like a good Broadway play."

Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post): "I'm giving the advantage to Fassbender, seeing as seven of the past 10 Best Actor winners came from biopics. Having 'Slow West' and 'Macbeth' in the can this year will give him added leverage."

Jack Mathews (Gold Derby): "Fassbender's arrival time is now and Steve Jobs, the character and the movie, are his vehicle. The structure of the film makes it an actor's showcase and I expect to see the phrase tour de force mentioned in the same sentence with his name in many of the reviews."

Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby): "Oscar voters love to see one famous face successfully portray another. Think Meryl Streep becoming Maggie Thatcher and Eddie Redmayne as Steven Hawking. This year Fassender fits that bill perfectly and he's got one more plus: he's widely considered to be a 'cool' star."

Other Experts: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone).
 

#2. Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant" (4 Experts; Odds to win: 9/2)
In this still-unscreened film, DiCaprio plays legendary frontiersman Hugh Glass, who is mauled by a bear and left for dead by the rest of his hunting party. He treks 200 miles across the Dakota Territory to exact his revenge. 

Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere): "DiCaprio has been doing good work in tough roles for the last 22 years, and right now is arguably as "due" as Julianne Moore was thought to be due last year."

Other Experts: Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

Oscar experts' predictions:
'Spotlight' now leads for Best Picture; 'Joy,' 'Steve Jobs,' 'The Revenant' tied for second

#3. Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl" (1 Expert; Odds to win: 11/2)
Last year's Best Actor Oscar champ ("The Theory of Everything") takes on another real-life role, the transgendered Lill Elbe in a biopic by Oscar winner Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech"). 

Brian Truitt (USA Today): "One could argue that Redmayne's transformation into and performance as a transgender woman is even more impressive than him playing Stephen Hawking and that won him Oscar."


#4. Johnny Depp, "Black Mass" (3 Experts; Odds to win: 11/2)
This three-time Oscar nominee transforms into Boston crime boss turned FBI informant Whitey Bulger in Scott Cooper's true crime story. 

Experts: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo) and Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily).


#5. Michael Caine, "Youth" (1 Expert; Odds to win: 14/1)
The two-time Supporting Actor champ ("Hannah and Her Sisters," 1986; "The Cider House Rules," 1999) could become the first to be nominated in six consecutive decades for his portrayal of a retired conductor considering one last performance in Italian auteur Paolo Sorrentino's intimate film

Expert: Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)

Oscar experts' predictions:
Best Actress battle between Cate Blanchett ('Carol') and Brie Larson ('Room')

Make your Oscar predictions beginning with Best Actor at the bottom of this post and you could earn a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year's Oscar nominations).

Last year, our Top 24 Users led the way with an accuracy rate of 76.67% when it came to predicting the Oscar nominations. Next up were Gold Derby's Editors with 74.44%, followed by the Experts with 71.11% and all Users with 68.09%. (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

Which group will be victorious this year? Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Oscar nominations last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it's important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

One thought on “Oscar experts: Michael Fassbender (‘Steve Jobs’) jumps further ahead of Leonardo DiCaprio (‘The Revenant’)

  1. Michael Fassbender deserves an Oscar. He’s arguably the best actor working today. Leonardo DiCaprio will win an Oscar someday, but I don’t see it being for “The Revenant” no matter how great he’ll be in that movie.

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