A quartet of writers for “Birdman” defied our odds to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars on Sunday night. Only 5 of our 29 Oscars experts predicted the Golden Globe champs Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo to prevail at the Academy Awards.
“Birdman” had second place 5/1 odds at the Oscars with the support of just five Experts: Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Mary Millilken (Reuters), Michael Musto (Out.com), Keith Simanton (IMDB) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily).
Wes Anderson was a three-time nominee this year for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” including his bids for producing and directing. He had lost his two previous times in this race (“The Royal Tenenbaums,” 2001; “Moonrise Kingdom,” 2012) as well as for Best Animated Feature in 2010 (“Fantastic Mr. Fox”). This was the first Oscar nomination for his co-writer Hugo Guinness.
That duo had won with BAFTA and the Writers Guild and was the overwhelming favorite with 3/10 odds and 24 Experts backing them: Thelma Adams (ZEALnyc), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Thom Geier, Pete Hammond (Deadline), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Claudia Puig (USA Today), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
Richard Linklater was also a three-time nominee this year for writing, directing, and producing “Boyhood.” He had much better chances on those other categories than he did writing, where he was in third place with 33/1 odds. He had two prior nominations in the adapted screenplay category for “Before Sunset” (2004) and “Before Midnight” (2013).
First-time nominee Dan Gilroy (“Nightcrawler“) was an Independent Spirit Award winner this weekend but was tied for last place at 100/1 odds with second-time contender Dan Futterman and rookie nominee E. Max Frye (“Foxcatcher“).