Oscars predictions: Experts split on Original Screenplay with 21 for ‘Grand Budapest Hotel,’ 7 for ‘Birdman’

While 21 of our Oscars experts are predicting that BAFTA and Writers Guild champs Wes Anderson and Hugh Guinness will win Best Original Screenplay for “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” seven of them expect a victory for the Golden-Globe winning quartet who scripted “Birdman.” Anderson, who also contends for directing and producing this year, lost his two previous bids in this race (“The Royal Tenenbaums,” 2001; “Moonrise Kingdom,” 2012) as well as Animated Feature in 2010 (“Fantastic Mr. Fox”). This is the first Oscar nomination for Guinness. 

UPDATED: Experts’ Oscars predictions in 24 categories

The Grand Budapest Hotel” is the 8/15 favorite with 21 Experts backing it: Thelma Adams (ZEALnyc), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby),  Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

See Oscar rankings when Experts’ predictions are combined

Birdman” claimed the combined screenplay race at the Golden Globes for director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo. They have 23/10 odds at the Oscars with the support of seven Experts: Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Thom Geier, Mary Millilken (Reuters), Michael Musto (Out.com), Claudia Puig (USA Today), Keith Simanton (IMDB) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily).

Richard Linklater is also a three-time nominee this year for writing, directing, and producing “Boyhood.” He has much better chances on those other categories than he does writing, where he is in third place with 50/1 odds.

First-time nominee Dan Gilroy (“Nightcrawler“) is tied for last place at 100/1 odds with second-time contender Dan Futterman and rookie nominee E. Max Frye (“Foxcatcher“).

Make your Oscars picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Original Screenplay winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations this year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Indie Spirits, Razzies, “Survivor,” “The Amazing Race” and more.

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