“Birdman” has the narrowest of advantages, getting odds of 11/10 on the strength of 15 experts: Thelma Adams (ZEALnyc), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Mary Milliken (Reuters), Michael Musto (Out.com), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan.
“Boyhood,” has odds of 6/5 with the support of 13 Oscarologists: Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Thom Geier, Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Dave Karger (Fandango), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Claudia Puig (USA Today), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
“Boyhood” was the early frontrunner, winning New York and Los Angeles critics’ prizes, followed by Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards for Best Picture.
Then “Birdman” pulled ahead, taking top honors at the PGA, DGA, and SAG Awards. “Apollo 13” (1995) stands alone as the only film to lose Best Picture at the Oscars after winning these three guild awards.
“Boyhood” rallied, winning Best Picture at the BAFTA Awards. The British academy has previwed the Best Picture champ at the Oscars for the last six years.
None of our experts is predicting a win for any of the other six contenders.
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” is the closest threat to the frontrunners, though a distant third at 50/1.
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