‘Birdman or ‘Boyhood’? Editors battle over what DGA and BAFTAs mean for Oscars [Video Slugfest]

We got a little more clarity about the Oscar race on Saturday night, when “Birdman” completed its sweep of the top three industry guilds with its win at the Directors Guild Awards. It had previously won top honors from the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild.

What do BAFTAS mean for Oscars?

But then Sunday’s BAFTA Awards left us scratching our heads again. The Brits picked “Boyhood” and its director Richard Linklater.

So what does it all mean? BAFTA has correctly predicted the Oscars’ Best Picture for the last six years in a row, but PGA has predicted the top Oscar for the last seven years. They can’t both be right.

Then there’s DGA’s track record. They’ve only been wrong about the Best Director Oscar seven times in 66 years, and as editor Chris Beachum points out in our latest video slugfest (watch it below), every DGA champ since 2001 has won the Oscar for Picture, Director, or both.

And only one film has ever lost Best Picture after winning the industry trifecta of PGA, DGA, and SAG: “Apollo 13” in 1995.

At DGA Awards, ‘Birdman’ soars ahead in the Oscars race

But then there’s the academy’s complex preferential ballot. If “Birdman” and “Boyhood” divide support, could “The Grand Budapest Hotel” sneak through as a surprise consensus choice?

Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan, Beachum, and I discuss all that and more in our slugfest. Have we all jumped on the “Birdman” bandwagon, or are any of us still backing “Boyhood”? Watch below, then use our drag-and-drop menu to predict Best Picture.

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