Oscars poll: Who’s ahead to win Best Actor?

Michael Keaton had led the race for Best Actor at the Oscars all season long for his performance as an one-time movie star on the comeback trail until he lost the SAG Award last month to Eddie Redmayne for his star turn as Stephen Hawking in the biopic “The Theory of Everything.” Since then, our Oscar experts have switched the ponies they are backing in this tight race. Redmayne, who won the BAFTA award last Sunday, now leads by a score of 15 – 9.

But is their current collective wisdom correct or were they right before? Then again, maybe another of the Best Actor nominees is poised to pull off an upset. What do you think? Vote in our poll below

UPDATED: Experts’ Oscars predictions in all 24 categories

Redmayne currently leads our overall combined racetrack odds, with odds of 8/15 that he will take to the stage on Oscar night. And Keaton sits in second place at 12/5. But are we underestimating the other contenders? After all, all of them play real-life people, which has always been popular with the academy. 

Bradley Cooper headlines “American Sniper“, the highest-grossing film of the year, as soldier Chris Kyle. Add in that he is contending for the third year in a row and is currently wowing audiences on Broadway with his transformation into “The Elephant Man” and he might well prevail despite his odds of 50/1. 

So too could Benedict Cumberbatch for his portrayal of WWII codebreaker Alan Turing in “The Imitation Game.” The mathematician, who was later persecuted by the British goverment for being gay, took his own life. Could Cumberbatch, who pulled off an upset at the Emmys last summer when he won Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor for an installment of his smash hit show “Sherlock,” do the same at the Oscars? As with Cooper, his current odds are 50/1.

NEW: See Oscar rankings when Experts’ predictions are combined

And then there is Steve Carell, who embodied the murderous millionaire John DuPont in the compelling drama “Foxcatcher.” While he has odds of 100/1, the academy does love to see performers undergo a physical transformation. 

After voting in our poll, be sure to make your Oscars picks. You can either click here or scroll down to predict the Best Actor winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations this year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Indie Spirits, “The Walking Dead,” “Celebrity Apprentice” and more.

14 thoughts on “Oscars poll: Who’s ahead to win Best Actor?

  1. It’s a horse race! This is going to be nail biter until the envelope is opened. Keaton could ride the Birdman train if it wins in major categories. He’s an Actor’s actor and Hollywood may just acknowledge him for all his career performances and longevity in the business. Plus, heck! he gave a great and brave performance! Eddie Redmayne (regardless of slap the stud syndrome) would be honored in any year for his physical tranformative performance (was a major feat of technical acting ala My Left Foot). Then there’s the possibility of an upset by Bradley Cooper (on his 3rd nomination in a row and for being in one of the most popular and commercial successful Best Picture nominees in a long while!) I wouldn’t count on just one winner yet. All are Deserving but if I had to pick who gave a better performance, I’m sticking with Michael Keaton.

  2. The NY Post slammed Gold Derby today and their “old school” formula for odds of the nominees. Based upon the article there is a lot of love for Bradley Cooper and he should win. He delivers the best performance of all the nominees.

  3. Keaton would get my vote hands down, but Cooper could easily pull off a well-deserved upset. Redmayne is also fantastic and could win, but I’m not completely sold on him as THE frontrunner. It could be because he is young and hasn’t been around as long as Keaton has.

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