Oscars predictions: Experts vs. Top 24 Users clash over Best Picture, Best Director

Last year, our Experts and Top 24 Users (drawn from the users who had posted the highest scores predicting the 2012 Oscars) did equally well overall, getting 21 of the 24 races right. Collectively, both groups stumbled on Animated and Live Action Short while the Experts got Original Screenplay wrong (going with “American Hustle” over “Her) and the Top 24 missed Film Editing (opting for “Captain Phillips” over “Gravity”). See last year’s breakdown of the Experts track record here and that of the Top 24 here.

In most of this year’s Oscar races there is strong consensus between our 29 Oscar Experts and the Top 24 Users. Indeed, the collective predictions of each group match in 22 out of 24 categories as detailed below. However, there are two especially close categories where the Experts and Top 24 Users can’t agree on the frontrunner and they’re biggies: Best Picture and Best Director.

This year, the two groups are evenly split between two strong candidates for both Best Picture and Best Director:

Best Picture
17 of 29 Experts: “Birdman”
16 of Top 24 Users: “Boyhood”

Best Director
22 of 29 Experts: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Birdman”)
13 of Top 24 Users: Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”)

Of the other 22 races, all have universal agreement amongst both the Experts and Top 24 Users:

Best Actor
21 of 29 Experts: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”)
18 of Top 24 Users: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”)

Best Actress
29 of 29 Experts: Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”)
24 of Top 24 Users: Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”)

Best Supporting Actor
29 of 29 Experts: J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”)
24 of Top 24 Users: J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”)

Best Supporting Actress
29 of 29 Experts: Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”)
24 of Top 24 Users: Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”)

Last year’s $1,000 Oscars contest winner predicts ‘Boyhood,’ Richard Linklater, …

Best Original Screenplay
22 of 29 Experts: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
19 of Top 24 Users: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Best Adapted Screenplay
20 of 29 Experts: “The Imitation Game”
16 of Top 24 Users: “The Imitation Game”

Best Cinematography
28 of 29 Experts: “Birdman”
21 of Top 24 Users: “Birdman”

Best Costume Design
26 of 29 Experts: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
20 of Top 24 Users: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Best Film Editing
26 of 29 Experts: “Boyhood”
18 of Top 24 Users: “Boyhood”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
20 of 29 Experts: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
17 of Top 24 Users: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Best Production Design
28 of 29 Experts: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
20 of Top 24 Users: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Oscars mystery: Which Best Picture nominee got those crucial second-place votes?

Best Score
20 of 29 Experts: “The Theory of Everything”
15 of Top 24 Users: “The Theory of Everything”

Best Song
27 of 29 Experts: “Glory” (“Selma”)
19 of Top 24 Users: “Glory” (“Selma”)

Best Sound Editing
21 of 29 Experts: “American Sniper”
18 of Top 24 Users: “American Sniper”

Best Sound Mixing
12 of 29 Experts: “Whiplash”
17 of Top 24 Users: “Whiplash”

Best Visual Effects
17 of 29 Experts: “Interstellar”
15 of Top 24 Users: “Interstellar”

Best Animated Feature
26 of 29 Experts: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”
18 of Top 24 Users: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”

Best Documentary Feature
26 of 29 Experts: “Citizenfour”
21 of Top 24 Users: “Citizenfour”

Best Foreign Film
25 of 29 Experts: “Ida”
21 of Top 24 Users: “Ida”

Best Animated Short
22 of 29 Experts: “Feast”
19 of Top 24 Users: “Feast”

Best Documentary Short
22 of 29 Experts: “Crisis Hotline”
19 of Top 24 Users: “Crisis Hotline”

Best Live Action Short
20 of 29 Experts: “The Phone Call”
18 of Top 24 Users: “The Phone Call”

Are our Experts or Top 24 Users on the right track? It’s up to you to decide.

Make your own Oscars picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Director winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations this year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict “The Walking Dead,” “Survivor,” “The Amazing Race” and more.

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