Last year, our user Kyle Bailey won $1,000 from Gold Derby for his spectacular Oscar predictions. He got 23 out of 24 correct — that’s a 96% prediction accuracy — missing only that sneaky win for “Mr. Hublot” in the Best Animated Short race. (See contest rules.)
On the eve of this year’s kudos, we sat down with Bailey to see what he’s predicting this time around. Can this 19-year-old film student from Full Sail University pull off yet another $1,000 victory? Below, see Bailey’s predictions in all 24 Oscar categories.
BEST PICTURE: “Boyhood“
I know the whole PGA upset happened, but I just don’t think “Boyhood” is going to lose. It’s the special movie that warms people’s hearts, it’s filled with nostalgia, and Linklater is such an overdue director that people have loved for years now.
BEST DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”)
Like I said, he is overdue in the eyes of voters most likely. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu could very well win and a spilt could happen, but I think more people feel passionate about Linklater than Alejandro and the 12-year commitment will be taken note of.
BEST ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”)
With the SAG win, this has to be going to Redmayne. It’s the better performance of the category (though I loved Steve Carell and wish his buzz never died abruptly).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “The Grand Budapest Hotel“
With the WGA win, I think it’ll go to the long overdue Wes Anderson, but with “Birdman” not even in WGA, I can’t put all my faith into “Budapest.” This is one of the closest races.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “Whiplash“
People loved this movie. When I hear celebrities who are most likely Academy members talk about their favorite movies of the year, they say “Boyhood,” “Birdman,” or “Whiplash.” I think many pundits are underestimating “Whiplash’s” power. Plus it will be a way to honor Damien Chazelle‘s awesome directing and of course the brilliant writing, too.
BEST SCORE: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Alexandre Desplat is overdue. I think that will be a huge trend this year, overdue people getting their due. But I could see his other score winning (“The Imitation Game”), I could see “The Theory of Everything” winning, heck I could even see Hans Zimmer winning for “Interstellar.” But when you listen to all these scores back to back, “Budapest” is the one that sticks out. It’s fun and light while the others are really somber and kind of sound the same.
BEST SONG: “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again“
I know I’m like the only person predicting this but I’m very skeptical about “Glory’s” chances. I know songs like “Lose Yourself” and “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” have won, but I don’t know how the older voters will go for rap. Yes, “Glory” has a powerful message to it unlike those other songs but seeing that “American Sniper” was so popular, are these the same voters that will go for rap? I just feel like “Lost Stars” will be like “Falling Slowly” from “Once.” It’s the most artistic of the nominees and it isn’t one note like a lot of the others. It builds in emotion while the others stay on one beat of emotion. I don’t know, this is my big no guts no glory (no pun intended) prediction. I could see Glen Campbell winning, too. Also, the whole “It won the Globe” argument for “Glory” is irrelevant. “Let it Go” lost the Globe, “Skyfall” lost the Globe, and “Man or Muppet” and “We Belong Together” weren’t even nominated. I have a hopeful feeling this trend will continue even though I would be happy with any of the nominees winning.
BEST DOCUMENTARY: “Citizenfour“
This is a no-brainer. With “Life Itself” snubbed, “Citizenfour” won the award on nominations morning. However, if the Academy wants to be anti-politics and go with artsy documentaries like the last two years, “Finding Vivian Maier” could upset.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: “How to Train Your Dragon 2“
With “The Lego Movie” out, they won this nominations morning, too. Since “Toy Story 3” was obviously going to sweep every animated category in 2010, the first “How to Train Your Dragon” had no chance. So this is the way to reward that one and this one, and both were critically acclaimed. “Big Hero 6” could very well upset but it hasn’t won any other animated award so I don’t think it will make it.
BEST EDITING: “Whiplash“
“Boyhood” can win, too, but those fast edits are too outstanding to ignore.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “Birdman“
This is where I am predicting “Birdman.” You know with the “American Hustle” shut-out last year, I don’t think I’m crazy saying that “Birdman” will win just one award. If they totally feel like shutting “Birdman” out, I would watch out for “Ida” or Dick Poop, I mean Dick Pope for “Mr. Turner.” Poor Roger Deakins will sit this one out once again.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Easy lock, unless they want to reward “Into the Woods” somehow.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
The absolute hardest category to predict. I could make a case for all three. But it is probably safer to predict the Best Picture nominee. If they want to honor “Foxcatcher” somehow, this is where it will be. “Guardians of the Galaxy” has the fantasy make up factor holding it back. “The Wolfman” was the last fantasy makeup movie to win in 2010.
BEST SOUND EDITING: “Interstellar“
This one is a big shrug, too (mostly because it’s the most boring category of the year). I guess “Interstellar,” but “American Sniper” could win.
BEST SOUND MIXING: “Whiplash”
If voters love them some “Whiplash,” I see it winning here. With “Les Miserables” winning this two years ago, I think they like to honor the music films in the mixing category.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “Interstellar”
This one is turning out to be hard since the guilds went with “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.” I would not be surprised if it won, but I think the Academy loves them some space in this category.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: “Parvaneh“
I’m also going out on a limb with this one. Frontrunners don’t usually win here. Everyone was predicting “The Voorman Problem” last year and it didn’t win. I don’t know if “The Phone Call” will win. It could, but I know when I walked out of those shorts, “Parvaneh” was the one that stuck with me. I felt the same way with “Helium” last year, so I think my instinct works here, hopefully.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1“
It’s the most accessible of the nominees, being on HBO Go, and it is emotionally impactful. And if voters see “The Phone Call” short, their subject matter is the same basically, but they’ll go with this one.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: “The Dam Keeper“
This race is bothering me. It’s the category that got me last year. “Feast” is visually striking and fills you up with glee in every frame. But “The Dam Keeper” is uniquely animated and has a moving story to it. I could see it winning. Also, I’m reading a lot of interviews with voters and tweets from voters that just love “The Dam Keeper” and voted for it. But if “Mr. Hublot” could win last year, honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone else won.
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