Oscar predictions: Keith Simanton (IMDB) picks ‘Boyhood,’ leery of ‘Birdman’

When it comes to his Oscar predictions, Keith Simanton (IMDB) has remained mostly faithful to his early picks this award season.

“I’ve made very few adjustments,” he notes in our webcam chat below. “I’ve had ‘Boyhood,’ Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette all along.”

In fact, the only changes he’s made in the lead races since last September have been for Best Director (dropping Richard Linklater for “Birdman‘s” Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) and Actor (ditching Michael Keaton for Eddie Redmayne). But, with only days to go before the Oscar ceremony, he’s not locking in his picks quite yet. It’s a crazy year, we both concede, and “Birdman” is coming on strong in the home stretch.

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“The one compelling reason I may switch over is the Hollywood aspect of ‘Birdman,'” Simanton says, noting that it’s a film about “people putting on a show.” That story line — so irresistible to showbiz insiders — helped to spark that legendary Best Picture upset of 1998. “It happened with ‘Shakespeare in Love’ over ‘Saving Private Ryan,'” he notes.

See Simanton’s predictions here. See mine here. See how they stack up against Gold Derby’s other Experts here. Watch our chat below.

One thought on “Oscar predictions: Keith Simanton (IMDB) picks ‘Boyhood,’ leery of ‘Birdman’

  1. Why should we listen to this guy? The highest percentage he’s ever gotten correct was 80% and that was for SAG. Everything else is in the 70s or lower.

    Just look at his nomination predictions. Chastain – Best Actress (E. Rigby), Adriana Barraza (Cake), and Carmen Ejogo (Selma) for Supporting Actress, Maleficent for Production Design? Awful.

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