Oscars: Gold Derby odds predicted 20 of 24 winners

How did you do with your Oscars predictions? Had you gone with just the frontrunners at Gold Derby, you would have scored 20 out of 24. Our odds, compiled from the predictions of 29 Experts, 7 Editors and thousands of readers like you, were the way to go with all but four of the races.

Below, a breakdown of what won (and unexpectedly lost) those awards. 

Oscars: Complete list of winners

Best Original Screenplay: “Birdman” over “The Grand Budapest Hotel
Only 5 of our 29 Oscars experts predicted the Golden Globe champs Alejandro Gonzalez InarrituNicolas GiacoboneAlexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo to prevail. “Birdman” had second place 5/1 odds with the support of just five Experts: Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Mary Millilken (Reuters), Michael Musto (Out.com), Keith Simanton (IMDB) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily). It also had the backing of one of our seven Editors, two of our Top 24 Users, and 25% of our overall Users.

Wes Anderson was a three-time nominee this year for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” including his bids for producing and directing. He had lost his two previous times in this race (“The Royal Tenenbaums,” 2001; “Moonrise Kingdom,” 2012) as well as for Best Animated Feature in 2010 (“Fantastic Mr. Fox”). This was the first Oscar nomination for his co-writer Hugo Guinness. That duo had won with BAFTA and the Writers Guild and was the overwhelming favorite with 3/10 odds and 24 Experts backing them.
 

Best Film Editing: “Whiplash” over “Boyhood
BAFTA champ and rookie nominee Tom Cross won with 13/5 odds and the backing of only four Experts: Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Tariq Khan (Fox News), and Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby).

Contrast that to 25 of our 29 Oscar Experts who predicted Sandra Adair would win for her work on Richard Linklater‘s 12-years-in-the-making “Boyhood.” This first-time contender had won with the American Cinema Editors guild and had overwhelming 1/2 odds, In addition to strong expert support, she was also predicted by two of our seven Editors, 19 of our Top 24 Users, and 66% of our overall Users.

Birdman’ reigns victorious as Best Picture at the Oscars,
The Grand Budapest Hotel’ also wins four

Best Score: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” over “The Theory of Everything
Composer Alexandre Desplat had racked up six losses and was expected to lose again this year, despite two nominations. But he finally won for his score for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” We had him in second place at 12/5 with the votes of seven Experts: Pete Hammond (Deadline), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood). 

Three times as many of our Experts predicted Golden Globe champ Johann Johannsson would prevail with his rooke bid for “The Theory of Everything.” He also had the backing of three of our seven Editors, 19 of our Top 24 Users, and 64% of our overall Users.
 

Best Animated Feature: “Big Hero 6” over “How to Train Your Dragon 2
Big Hero 6” had the support of just three Experts: Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), and Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly) and odds of 11/2. 

Contrast that to our 26 Oscars Experts who predicted “Dragon 2” would be the first DreamWorks computer-animated film to win the category since “Shrek” in 2001. The film was also predicted by six out of seven Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users, and 73% of our overall Users.

Last year, had you gone with the Gold Derby favorites, you would have scored 22 out of 24. In 2012 we went 17 for 24 and in 2011 we got 18 out of 24. 

One thought on “Oscars: Gold Derby odds predicted 20 of 24 winners

  1. I’m sorry, does anybody know where to find odds (right before the show) afterwards for this year’s Academy Awards? I mean the odds by different bookers.

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