What do Outer Critics Circle nominations tell us about Tony Awards?

If the Outer Critics Circle Award nominations are any indication for the upcoming Tony nominations and awards, then “Something Rotten” looks to be the big winner and “Finding Neverland” the biggest loser. “Rotten,” the new musical comedy set in Elizabethan times, received the most nominations from the OCC with 12 while “Neverland” was totally skunked. (See full list of nominations here.)

Do you think either of these will win Best Musical at the Tonys? There are just eight days to go till Tony nominations are announced on April 28.

Win our predictions contest and you will earn a place of honor in our famous leaderboards as well as a $100 Amazon gift certificate and bragging rights for a year. Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – are the smartest prognosticators when it comes to these Broadway kudos. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds which are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds. And those are closely monitored by producers and stars alike. 

Last year, the Outer Critics were fairly accurate Tony prognosticators. OCC favorite “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder” (11 nominations) went on to take the most Tony noms as well (10) and won the top Tony for Best Musical and three others (Direction, Book, and Costume Design). In 2013, “Pippin” led the OCC nom list and raked in four Tonys including Best Musical Revival.

But this year, two of the top contenders for Tonys — Best Musical frontrunnerFun Home” and the play “Hand to God” — were ineligible with the OCC because they had been nominated in previous seasons for their Off-Broadway runs. Unlike the Broadway-only Tonys, the OCCs have a separate Off-Broadway category for Outstanding Play and Musical and it considers both on and Off-Broadway in all of its other slots.

Thus, “Fun Home” which just opened to ecstatic reviews, may well sweep the Tony noms with placements in Best Musical, Direction, and for several of its cast members including Michael Cerveris who won a Lortel Award and Sydney Lucas who took home an Obie for the Off-Broadway production at the Public Theatre in 2013. Likewise, “Hand to God” could reap a Tony nod for Best Play and acting bids for Steven Boyer (winner of an Obie and Lortel for the Off-Broadway version) and Geneva Carr.

The voting body of the Outer Critics is vastly different from that of the Tonys. Tony noms are chosen by a panel of 50 industry insiders while the OCC short-list is put together by the seven members of the group’s Executive Committee, all reporters or critics for out-of-town or national publications or media. Thus, the OCCs are usually subject to the individual tastes of these seven rather than a broad consensus of 50. Indeed, this year’s OCC list has its share of eccentric choices and omissions.

Besides the complete snubbing of “Finding Neverland,” the OCC also shunned “Constellations,” “Its Only a Play,” and “Honeymoon in Vegas.” These shut-out shows will probably get some recognition from the Tonys.

Indeed, “Constellations” should reap a Tonys bid for star Ruth Wilson and it stands a chance of garnering a Best Play nomination. The OCC committee must have really disliked it as they opted for only three nominees for Best Broadway Play (Tonys frontrunner “Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time” as well as two other British imports, “The Audience” and “Wolf Hall”) even though the rules allow for four. 

And the OCC showered six nominations on “It Shoulda Been You” including Best Broadway Musical, Book and Score. This musical comedy has split the critics, half hating its dated gags and the other half loving it as a guilty pleasure and for the performances and direction by David Hyde-Pierce. Most found the book and score the show’s weakest elements. The producers of “Shoulda” will probably tout the show’s sextet of OCC nods in advertisements throughout award season because the odds are not great for the show to do as well at the Tonys.    

To win our Tony nominations predictions contest, you must have the highest accuracy percentage – and maybe more than that. If more than one player has the best accuracy, the winner is the person with the highest accuracy plus most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each player gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

That’s what happened when we tallied up prediction scores for last year’s Tony Awards nominations. Nine users were tied at the top with a jaw-dropping 95% accuracy. However, J F Petsche was our official winner because he scored 6,046 points (including 2,915 points for Play Revival where he had placed his 500 point bet). Compare that to second-place finisher Ted Stevenson  who scored 5,674 points (he put his 500 point bet on Musical Revival and earned 2,333 points there). 

Get started by making your own predictions for Best Musical using our easy drag-and-drop menu found at the bottom of this post.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until the morning of the nominations announcement on April 28. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

To enter your predictions for the other genre categories, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of the Billboard Awards and both Daytime and Primetime Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” and talent shows such as “American Idol” and “The Voice.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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