Producers Guild Awards predictions: ‘Boyhood,’ ‘Birdman,’ ‘Selma,’ ….

 

What can we expect when the Producers Guild of America announces nominees for Best Picture on Monday, Jan. 5 (three days before Oscar balloting closes)? Nine of our Oscar Experts have entered their predictions for the PGA nominees. Collectively these mirror our forecast for the Best Picture lineup at the Oscars with one exception (we expect box office smash “Interstellar” to be nominated by the producers over “Foxcatcher”). Click here to see the collective odds.

In descending order by odds of winning, we are predicting the PGA nominees to be:

Boyhood” (3/1)
Birdman” (6/1)
Selma” (8/1)
The Imitation Game” (9/1)
The Grand Budapest Hotel” (12/1)
The Theory of Everything” (12/1)
Gone Girl” (14/1)
Unbroken” (16/1)
Whiplash” (20/1)
Interstellar” (33/1)

The Oscarologists predicting the PGA nominees are: Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com) and me. Click here to see their individual predictions.  

First place: “Boyhood” gets all nine votes.

Second place: “Birdman” gets seven votes (Sasha is going with “Gone Girl” here while Anne has “Selma”).

Third place: “Selma” gets seven votes (Sasha and Anne both slot “Birdman” here.) 

Fourth place: “The Imitation Game” gets seven votes (Sasha puts “Selma” here and I have “Unbroken”)

Beyond this, no film gets a majority of the votes for any given place.

Of our other top 10 contenders, only “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “The Theory of Everything” make all of our lists.

Three films have the support of eight out of nine Experts:

“Gone Girl” makes the cut with everyone but Peter.

“Unbroken” makes the cut with everyone but Sasha.

Whiplash” makes the cut with everyone but Susan.

Interstellar” has five Experts predicting it to be a PGA nominee: Edward, Scott, Paul, Sasha, Anne

“Into the Woods” has four: Michael, Tom, Peter, Susan

“American Sniper” has one: Sasha

“Foxcatcher” has one: Peter

UPDATEDExperts’ Oscars predictions in all 24 categories

When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2009, the Producers Guild of American followed suit. And while the academy shifted to a sliding scale four years ago, the PGA stuck with 10 contenders. That has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at predicting the eventual Oscars roster with it previewing 40 of the 47 (i.e., 85%) of the Best Picture nominees.

Last year, eight of the PGA nominees made the cut with academy: eventual Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave,” as well as “Gravity” (which had tied with it at the PGA), “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips,”  “Dallas Buyers Club” “Her,” “Nebraska,” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.” The other two PGA contenders — “Blue Jasmine” and “Saving Mr. Banks” — were snubbed by the academy. Rather, Brit hit “Philomena” was the ninth Oscar nominee. 

In 2012, eight PGA nominees also reaped bids for the top Academy Award — “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Les Miserables,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” Rounding out the roster at the PGA were “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Skyfall.” The guild snubbed the French-language “Amour,” which netted a Best Picture nod from the academy. “Argo” prevailed with the PGA before taking home the Oscar. 

In 2011, the PGA predicted seven of the eventual nine Best Picture contenders, including “The Artist” which won with both groups. The PGA filled out their slate with popular pictures “Bridesmaids,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “The Ides of March” while the Oscars went with “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and “The Tree of Life.”

See latest Oscar rankings when the Experts’ predictions are combined

In 2010, the PGA foresaw nine of the eventual 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees. The guild went for “The Town” while the academy opted for “Winter’s Bone” for the tenth slot. Both groups chose “The King’s Speech” as the Best Picture of the year. 

And in 2009, the Oscars concurred with the PGA on eight of the 10 contenders. PGA nominated “Invictus” and “Star Trek” over Oscar choices “The Blind Side” and “A Serious Man.” Both groups picked as best pic “The Hurt Locker.”

The PGA champ will be crowned on Jan. 24, 13 days before final Oscar voting begins. The PGA uses the same system as the Oscars — the preferential ballot — for the final vote. All five of the most recent winners of the PGA prize also won Best Picture. Indeed, the guild and academy have agreed on 18 of the most recent 25 Best Picture champs. 

What are your PGA predictions? Make your picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the PGA Best Picture champ using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $100 prize.  Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Oscars, Golden Globes, Grammys, “Celebrity Apprentice,” “AHS: Freak Show” and more.

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