Can Ricky Gervais pull off a shocking upset at the Golden Globes?

Ricky Gervais just Tweeted us this sweet, whimsical illustration of his character Derek hugging a Golden Globe. Let’s hope, come Jan. 11, Ricky ends up with that prize for real. He certainly deserves it for his poignant portrayal of a lovable, emotionally challenged caregiver at a British rest home.

The Netlix star of “Derek” is nominated for Best TV Comedy Actor, but Gold Derby doesn’t give Ricky great odds to win. Jeffrey Tambor is favored by our Experts, Editors and Users with 2 to 13 odds, probably because he gives the, um, most flamboyant performance in the category while portraying an aging transgender dad in Amazon’s “Transparent.”

Ricky is ranked in third place (25/1), which isn’t too shabby, but he’s got to get around second-placed William H. Macy (“Shameless”), who might normally have an edge in this race. Macy’s a respected film star slumming it on TV (that helped Don Cheadle pull off an upset in this race for “House of Lies” two years ago) and he gives a big, loud, boozy performance. Hollywood voters are suckers for that, but Hollywood Foreign Press Association members don’t seem to like “Shameless” very much. Macy’s bid is its only nomination. Furthermore, it’s very controversial. Last year Showtime entered it as a drama series, but when “Shameless” got skunked, the network submitted as a comedy this year. Normally, that kind of switcheroo isn’t permitted, but somehow “Shameless” got a papal dispensation and lots of people are ticked off about it.

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Now Cheadle is back in this category again and, frankly, he’s lucky to be there. He’ll probably be tossed aside like used Kleenex. Look at what happened to last year’s victor, Andy Samberg (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”) – he’s not even nominated.

Globe voters are like that. They’re not very loyal, not unless you’re a member of the family.

And so that leads us to Ricky, who is a rather rascally member of the Globes clan. Back in 2011, let’s recall, he roasted HFPA members when he hosted the gala, but they forgave him and even invited Ricky back to do it again the next year.

Ricky hasn’t been nominated in a Globes award category since all that. Now is voters’ first chance to give him a thank-you present – and that certainly can happen. Ricky pulled off a jawdropper at the Globes in 2003-2004 when he won Best Comedy Actor for his U.K. version of “The Office”— yes, the British one — which also staged a WTF victory as Best Comedy Series.

Now we might be tempted to pick Ricky to up-end the place again, but we’re gun-shy when it comes to calling him for the longshot. Gold Derby’s editors did that at the recent Emmys. We were certain he’d do it. After all, he submitted the best sample episode to Emmy judges and that usually nails it. No entry by a rival nominee even came close to the impact, power, range and humor jammed into episode 6 of season 2 of “Derek.” But Emmy judges obviously didn’t watch it. Instead, they lazily opted for their automatic, default choice — Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”), who claimed his fourth win in six years.

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The fifth nominee in this Globes category is Louis C.K. He only gets 50-to-1 odds because he hasn’t won in the past and now “Louie” didn’t make the cut for Best Comedy Series. But, wait: “Derek” didn’t either, come to think of it. Hmmm.

Who do you think will win Best Comedy Actor? Make your prediction here or below. Achieve the best score and you’ll win our contest prize: $100 Amazon gift certificate. Plus an esteemed place in our immortal leaderboards of glory.

 

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