Size matters at the SAG Awards, where the largest casts often have an advantage against smaller ensembles. That surely helped Netflix's "Orange is the New Black" win Best TV Comedy Ensemble last year, and that could give it the edge again this year: it has 34 cast members, far more than any of its rivals. But many of our predictors still think it will be bested by reigning Emmy champ "Veep."
"Veep" too has a sizable cast, though its 14 actors is scant compared too "Orange's" veritable fleet of actors. Nevertheless, our Top 24 Users – those two dozen folks who had the top scores predicting last year's SAG winners – give the HBO political comedy the slight advantage. Eleven of them are predicting it to prevail, giving it 6/5 odds: Varla, Halo_Insider, Chaplin567, Charles Bright, SamEckmann, Writer12, ldm2006, bondzzz, Noe, Gabriel Severo and wienrdog0.
Among those predicting "Veep" is bondzzz, who got the highest score predicting last year's SAG winners (88%), so it may be wise to heed his forecasts.
This is the third straight nomination for "Veep" in this race. The show has never won Best Ensemble before, but star Julia Louis-Dreyfus did win Best TV Comedy Actress in 2013, so we know there's support for the series. And the show's victory for Best Comedy Series at the Emmys in September also indicates strong support within the industry.
This is the second nomination for "Orange" for Best TV Comedy Ensemble. It's also nominated for Best TV Comedy Actress (Uzo Aduba). It won both prizes last year, so it's certainly a force to be reckoned with.
Three of our top users are going out on a limb for Amazon's streaming series "Transparent," giving it 13/2 odds: MattDissen, FreemanGriffin and MovieMania. Of those users, FreemanGriffin actually tied bondzzz for last year's best prediction accuracy (88%), but he finished lower on our leaderboard because of bondzzz's higher points total.
"Transparent" was snubbed at last year's SAG Awards for its first season, but it's now up for both Best Comedy Ensemble and Best Comedy Actor (Jeffrey Tambor), and it's the frontrunner to win the latter according to our racetrack odds.
None of our Top 24 are predicting the remaining three nominees: four-time past SAG champ "Modern Family" (2010-2013), which now gets 66/1 odds; "The Big Bang Theory," which has never won a SAG Award and gets 80/1 odds; and sketch comedy "Key and Peele," which also gets 80/1 odds.
The consensus of Gold Derby Editors – those of us who cover awards year-round for the site – is also that "Veep" will prevail. Five out of six of us – Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Paul Sheehan and Matt Noble – are betting on the political satire, giving it 3/10 odds. I'm the sole editor predicting a repeat victory for "Orange is the New Black," giving it 9/2 odds.
What do you think will win at the SAG Awards? Make your predictions beginning with Best TV Comedy Ensemble to the right or at the bottom of this post.
You could win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year's SAG winners).
"Veep photo credit: HBO
"Orange is the New Black" photo credit: Netflix