Will Michael Keaton (“Spotlight“) win Best Supporting Actor at SAG, or will his co-star Mark Ruffalo overtake him? They’re the top two contenders according to the combined predictions of Expert film journalists we’ve polled, along with Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG nominations and the more than 1000 total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors. Who do you think will prevail?
Keaton leads our predictions with odds of 12/5. He may be considered overdue after his surprise Best Actor loss last year for “Birdman” (though he did win Best Film Ensemble as a member of the cast). He has one other previous SAG nom, for the TV miniseries “The Company” (2007), and “Spotlight” is forecast to win Best Ensemble this year regardless of how Keaton does in this race.
Ruffalo follows with odds of 11/2. He was nominated in this category last year for “Foxcatcher,” but even though he lost that race to J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash“), he won his other nomination, Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor for “The Normal Heart.” He has two other previous nominations, Best Supporting Actor and Best Ensemble for “The Kids Are All Right” (2010).
In third place with 6/1 odds is Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies“). The Tony-winning stage vet has never been nominated at the SAG Awards, but he could be nominated multiple times this year, for “Spies” as well as the TV miniseries “Wolf Hall,” for which he’s already been nominated for an Emmy.
Also with multiple chances at SAG nominations is Idris Elba, who ranks fourth in this category with 7/1 odds for “Beasts of No Nation.” He could face Rylance here as well as in the Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor contest where he may be nominated for resuming the title role in “Luther.” Elba has one previous SAG bid, as a member of the ensemble cast of the film “American Gangster” (2007).
Expected to round out the category is Tom Hardy (“The Revenant“) with odds of 9/1. He has no previous SAG nominations despite appearing in past awards contenders like “Inception,” “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” and “Warrior.” In addition to his “Revenant” role, he could be nominated in the lead category for his dual roles as gangsters in “Legend.”
Only 13 of the 21 SAG winners (62%) in this category also won Oscars. Compare that to Best Actor, where the two groups agree on 81% (17/21) of the winners.
Luckily for this year’s crop of SAG hopefuls, the two Supporting Actor races have been in sync lately: only one of the last seven SAG champs failed to repeat at the Oscars.
That exception was in 2012. Tommy Lee Jones won SAG for “Lincoln,” but the Oscar went to Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained.” Waltz had been snubbed entirely by the guild, making him the only Oscar winner in this category to have prevailed without a SAG nomination since these guild awards began.
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“Spotlight” photo credit: Open Road Films