BIGGEST JUMPS IN OSCAR PREDICTIONS THIS WEEK
Michael Keaton remains out front for his featured turn as newspaperman Walter "Robby" Robinson in "Spotlight" (as seen by the blue line in the graph above). But look at the rapid rise of Sylvester Stallone for his return to the role of Rocky Balboa in "Creed." Follow the red line and see how he has come out of nowhere to vault to second place, following his rave reviews for reviving the character that earned him a Best Actor bid for the original 1976 film.
Stallone, who won Best Supporting Actor from the National Board of Review last Monday, now has the backing of six of of the 22 experts at Gold Derby (Oscarwatchers at Yahoo, USA Today, Entertainment Weekly, etc.). That's up by three votes from just a week ago and boosts his odds of winning to 11/2 (from 9/1). Keaton, who won Best Actor from the New York Film Critics Circle last Tuesday, still leads with seven votes and odds of 10/3.
He lost that 1976 Best Actor race to the late Peter Finch for his bravura work as a TV news anchor who cracks up on-air in "Network." However, Stallone did see his film, which he wrote, pull off an upset in the Best Picture race.
BIGGEST DROPS OF THE WEEK
We had thought that Keaton's biggest threat would be his co-star Mark Ruffalo (the green line) for his powerful portrayal of Michael Rezendes, one of the team of Boston Globe reporters who exposed the coverup of a sex scandal by local Catholic diocese.
However, he lost one of his six votes and his odds slipped to 6/1 (from 9/2). Ruffalo has gone down to defeat in this twice before: for "The Kids Are All Right" (2008) to Christian Bale ("The Fighter"); and for "Foxcatcher" (2014) to J.K. Simmons ("Whiplash").
Mark Rylance (the gold line), who was named Best Supporting Actor by the NYFCC, continues to have the votes of two experts for his subtle performance as a Russian spy in "Bridge of Spies." However the rest of us have ranked him slightly lower on our ballots and he now has odds of 11/2 (versus 6/1) to add an Oscar to his three Tonys.
One-time frontrunner Idris Elba (the purple line) has no first place votes and has slipped in our rankings to fifth with odds of 8/1 (versus 7/1 last week). While he got great reviews as a warrior who recruits child soldiers in Cary Fukunaga's unflinching drama "Beasts of No Nation," the film got a limited release as it simultaneously streamed on Netflix.
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