Oscar predictions update: Michael Keaton challenged by ‘Spotlight’ co-star Mark Ruffalo

Spotlight Michael Keaton Mark Ruffalo Bridge of Spies Idris Elba Netflix Oscar 13579086

BIGGEST JUMPS IN OSCAR PREDICTIONS THIS WEEK
Although Michael Keaton remains out front for his featured turn as newspaperman Walter “Robby” Robinson in “Spotlight,” one of his co-stars, Mark Ruffalo is coming on strong  in the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actor. Many critics singled out his powerful portrayal of Michael Rezendes, one of the team of Boston Globe reporters who exposed the coverup of a sex scandal by local Catholic diocese.

Ruffalo now has the backing of six of of the 22 experts at Gold Derby (Oscarwatchers at Yahoo, USA Today, Entertainment Weekly, etc.). That’s up by two votes from just a week ago and boosts his odds of winning to 11-to-2 (from 13-to-2). Keaton leads with nine votes and odds of 14-to-5 (down from 11-to-4).

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Ruffalo gained the support of Tariq Khan (Fox News) and Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) who both switched from Keaton. 

While Keaton holds one Oscar IOU for his Best Actor loss last year for “Birdman” (Eddie Redmayne won for “The Theory of Everything”) Ruffalo holds two.

He has lost this race twice: for “The Kids Are All Right” (2008) to Christian Bale (“The Fighter”); and for “Foxcatcher” (2014) to J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”). 

BIGGEST DROPS OF THE WEEK
Mark Rylance continues to have the votes of two experts for his subtle performance as a Russian spy in “Bridge of Spies.” However the rest of us have ranked him slightly lower on our ballots and he now has odds of 11/2 (versus 5/1) to add an Oscar to his three Tonys. 

Likewise for one-time frontrunner Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation“) who has kept his two votes but slipped in our rankings to fourth with odds of 6/1 (versus 11/2 last week). While he got great reviews as a warrior who recruits child soldiers in Cary Fukunaga‘s unflinching drama, the film got a limited release as it simultaneously streamed on Netflix.  

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See the Oscar predictions of the 22 experts in 16 top categories. See latest racetrack odds.

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