All season long, we’ve been asking readers like YOU to predict who will win “Survivor: Worlds Apart.” And while Gold Derby’s overall odds foresee a victory for jewelry designer Joe Anglim with leading 27/10 odds, I think there are still five players who can actually win this season. Hurry — make your own predictions now and you could win our weekly prize of a $100 Amazon gift certificate. It’s fun and easy!
In what is widely being touted as one of the best seasons of “Survivor” ever, control of the game couldn’t be more up in the air. Check out Gold Derby’s predictions for Episode 7, titled “The Line Will Be Drawn Tonight,” by clicking on the graph to the right.
Going into the merge this week, original tribe numbers stand at five Blue Collars, four No Collars and three White Collars, while the post-swap tribes match at six against six. But in order to take control of the game, an alliance of at least seven will have to form, which means we’re likely to see loyalties shift and a new dominant alliance take shape.
With that being said, there are only five castaways I can conceive of winning and here’s how I think they can get there:
1.) Jenn Brown
What advantage doesn’t Jenn have going into the merge? Like Carolyn, she has an Immunity idol that very few people know about. Like Joe, she’s in the inner circle of what should become the dominant alliance. But unlike Carolyn, Jenn has the numbers. And unlike Joe, Jenn’s had Hali and Will on her tribe through the swap and into the merge. She’s also likeable, gets a lot of screen time (pay attention to how production has used her confessionals to narrate game play — often referred to as “the winner’s edit”), has proven herself in challenges, but is otherwise not as obvious a threat to win challenges as Joe, Tyler, Mike and Rodney will be. If Jenn finds herself at the final Tribal Council, she will be there because of shrewd use of a hidden idol, loyalty to her original alliance and with a few earned Immunities under her belt — all of which are reasons why “Survivor” juries vote for a winner.
2.) Shirin Oskooi
The way this season is shifting from episode to episode, I wouldn’t be surprised to find Shirin in the finals as a major threat to win the whole thing. Before Carolyn’s betrayal and Max’s exit, Shirin’s confidence was through the roof. After it, Shirin was broken. But in what I think is probably the most important scene so far this season, Hali’s honesty with Shirin about why they turned on her and Max will prove to have two major implications: Shirin will shift yet again to play a more self-aware game, suppressing the aspects of her personality that others find annoying, and she will have been brought back into her tribe in the very way that the Blue Collars were incapable of doing with Sierra. Should both Carolyn and Shirin stick with the No Collars post-merge, they’ll be in similar positions, but while Carolyn may have joined them in voting out Max, Shirin will be less threatening in challenges and is more likely to do what they say without strategizing against them. At a final five that includes the four No Collars and Shirin, Shirin would be the swing vote in the competing Jenn/Hali and Joe/Will duos, finding herself in the final three with very little blood on her hands.
3.) Joe Anglim
Here’s where I agree with the overall Gold Derby odds. We know from the exit interviews of both Max and Joaquin that Joe was seen as a threat almost instantly by the White Collar tribe. His good looks, athletic prowess and the ability of a struggling No Collar tribe to rebound from losses make Joe look very strong, and should plant a target squarely on his back at the merge. But “Survivor” is a game of numbers, and there’s a very good chance no one will have the numbers to take him out any time soon. Going into the merge, we have no reason to believe that the Joe/Jenn/Hali/Will No Collar alliance won’t stick together. Two weeks ago they pulled in Carolyn to take out Max and last week Hali was shown reeling Shirin back in, making her feel less threatened and unlikely to jump to the Blue Collar alliance. If either Carolyn or Shirin can pull in Tyler, and this shouldn’t be hard, the No Collar alliance will have seven votes over the other five, with their original four being a majority of that. Ultimately this four will have to split—assuming that Jenn and Hali are a tight two, Joe will have to side with Will and take one of the girls out. If he can do this and dominate the late-game immunity challenges, Joe could very easily muscle his way into the finals and smile his way to a win.
4.) Carolyn Rivera
Never doubt the strength of an Immunity idol that no one else knows about. Remember that Carolyn found the hidden immunity idol in the first episode? Well, she still has it and presumably only Tyler knows about it. With her new status as an adopted member of the No Collar alliance, if Carolyn can continue to keep her idol secret and make it deep enough in the game, she could use it to blindside a major threat and slide into the final three where she’d seem like the underdog that made a game-changing power move. Carolyn’s biggest hurdle in the final tribal council will be defending what some may see as a lack of loyalty, but remember that Tyler wanted Max out, too, and unless Shirin is on the jury, the issue of her turning on the White Collars is unlikely to come up. If she shows a lack of loyalty toward the No Collars late in the game, it will be out of necessity and could strengthen her defense, rather than hurt it.
5.) Mike Holloway
In order for any of the Blue Collars to make the finals, they’re going to need a lot of luck and a truly brilliant strategy. Going into the merge they may seem to have the numbers, but of the original five, two are now on the outs (Sierra and Rodney) and one has been away with the other tribe through two challenges (Kelly). If all five of them do join together, they’ll still need to keep Tyler and/or Joe, or pull in Carolyn or Shirin to gain a majority of votes. The problem with believing that they could develop a strategy to find this majority though is that we have yet to see any of their plans successfully pan out. Of the five, Mike is the only one that has shown an understanding of the game, but that I’m saying this about the guy who ate a scorpion for protein only a few days into the game is indicative of what a mess they are. Rodney’s attitude is volatile, Sierra’s loyalty is strained, Dan lacks an understanding of what Jeff Probst stresses almost every episode, that “perception is reality,” and Kelly, while powering through one of “Survivor’s” more gory injuries, struggled with last week’s memory challenge even when Mike was handing her the win. If he can avoid being taken out as a threat, Mike could be the last Blue Collar standing, but without an alliance to keep him safe, he’ll need an unprecedented string of Immunity wins to find himself in the finals. But should he get there, it’ll be at the expense of the rest of the Blue Collars and my guess is that their blood will be on the hands of someone else and Mike could have a good chunk of votes in the palm of his hands.
Where do you fall on our overall Season 30 leaderboard?
For the entire season so far, three of our users are all tied with 71% accuracy, though they’re separated by their point scores: Smartdude is in first place with 72,038 points, I am in second place with 28,744 points and Taloson is in third place with 14,423 points. Just behind in fourth place is CarlinhosFelipe with 67% accuracy, followed by two users who are tied at 54% accuracy: JasonNolette and Dfranco.
Can YOU beat these frontrunners to win our prizes? Then be sure to take part in our “Survivor” prediction contest. We’re giving away $100 Amazon gift certificates to our weekly winners plus at season’s end. The deadline for each episode is Wednesday at 4 p.m. PT.
Our current overall leader Smartdude missed out on calling the elimination of Joaquin in “Odd Woman Out,” instead predicting Kelly Remington would go home (see his predix). But Smartdude did so well at predicting previous “Survivor” episodes that he’s still our #1 reader to take down, proving that it’s possible to do well in our contests without getting everything right.
Remember that coming out on top doesn’t just mean answering that week’s questions correctly. You also have to use your three big bets (500 points and two of 200 points) strategically to score the most game points. If you bet on a longshot who pulls off an upset, you can really rack up the points, so don’t take them for granted.
To vote for who think will go home next on “Survivor,” drag contestants over from the left to the right and arrange them in your predicted order. For example, if you think Kelly will be eliminated, make sure you put her in first place. You can continue to update and change your predictions throughout the week, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.
Average Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. We are forecasting everything from the results on reality TV shows like “Survivor,” “Dancing with the Stars,” “American Idol” and “The Amazing Race” to the body count on “The Walking Dead” to the winners of the Emmys and Tonys.
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