Golden Globes predictions: Yes, ‘The Affair’ really can take down ‘House of Cards’

Even though Showtime’s “The Affair” currently trails Netflix’s “House of Cards” in our Golden Globe predictions for Best TV Drama Series, be warned: it’s poised to stage a massive upset.

Remember last year when “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” shocked Globes audiences by winning Best TV Comedy Series? Well, it did so because it was the only new comedy in the line-up and Globes voters are notorious for being the first to honor freshman fair. Put a shiny new toy in front of Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. voters, and they just can’t help but play with it.

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This year, “The Affair” is the only new show nommed for Best Drama Series, which gives it a unique leg up on its competition. To compare, “House of Cards” is two years old, “Game of Thrones” and “Downton Abbey” are both up for their fourth seasons, while “The Good Wife” is on its sixth — that’s absolutely ancient by Globes standards.

Another factor to consider: We know that Globes voters love spreading the wealth across all the networks. A little love to HBO here, a win to Starz here, a hug to ABC here, etc. Since Netflix is predicted to win trophies for “Orange is the New Black” and Uzo Aduba over on the comedy side, that means Globes voters won’t feel the need to also give Netflix the big win for Best Drama Series. Thus, the door opens for Showtime to squeeze in there.

Speaking of Showtime, Globes voters just can’t get enough of that paycaster. “Homeland” won a whopping five Globes over its first two seasons, while other recent Showtime champs have included Jon Voight (“Ray Donovan“), Don Cheadle (“House of Lies“), Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes“) and Laura Linney (“The Big C“). All of this is great news for “The Affair” and its nominated stars Ruth Wilson and Dominic West.

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According to exclusive Gold Derby odds, “House of Cards” is in the lead to win this race with 2/3 odds, followed by “The Affair” in second place with 11/2 odds, “Game of Thrones” in third place with 15/2 odds, “The Good Wife” in fourth place with 8/1 odds and “Downton Abbey” in last place with 100/1 odds.

Do you think “The Affair” will win the Golden Globe for Best TV Drama Series? Click here to enter your own predictions for this category and all of the Globes’ top races, or use our easy drag-and-drop menu at the bottom of this post to get started.

Your predictions determine our racetrack odds and you can keep editing them right up until the day of the ceremony. Top score wins $100. You score points based on how accurately you predict the winners (you get more points if you correctly predict a long-shot candidate before anyone else does), and if you’re one of our most accurate predictors, you’ll be included next year among our elite Top 24 Users and have even greater influence over our odds.

Below, watch our new Editors’ Golden Globes predictions slugfest over all the top TV races.

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