Tony Awards predictions slugfest: Paul Sheehan vs. forum posters Sam Eckmann & David Buchanan

Two of our most dedicated theater forum posters — David Buchanan (“Piano Mann”) and Sam Eckmann — chatted with me just hours after the Tony Awards nominations were announced Tuesday. They dared to make some early forecasts as to what will (and won’t) win on June 7. (Watch our webcam chat below and then make your own predictions, starting with Best Musical.

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Sam and I deferred to David at the outset as he had bested us with a score of 89% on his predictions versus our respectable 86%. However, even that stellar score was not enough for David to top our leaderboard. That honor went to one of our Experts, Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly), who scored a jawdropping 98% (she missed just one of the five Best Musical Actor nominees). 

While David thought there was potential for the frontrunners to falter in some of the races on the play side, Sam and I quickly put him right. Helen Mirren simply can’t lost Best Actress (Play) for recreating her Oscar-winning performance as Queen Elizabeth II in “The Audience.” David does make a compelling case for Carey Mulligan (“Skylight“) and Sam says he would love to see Geneva Carr win for “Hand to God.”

An American in Paris, ‘Fun Home,’ ‘Wolf Hall’ lead Tony Awards nominations

While that play, along with Pulitzer prize champ “Disgraced,” flies the American flag in the top race, it looks like “Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time” will do as well at the Tonys as it did at the Oliviers. As for the epic “Wolf Hall: Parts 1 and 2“? Those nine nominations might be the reward. 

We three agreed that the top musical categories are the most competitive. David and Sam are both predicting “Fun Home” will win Best Musical while I am torn between the smash hits “An American in Paris” and “Something Rotten.” And we concur that the leading men from those three shows — Michael Cerveris, Robert Fairchild and Brian D’Arcy James — are the leading men in the Best Actor (Musical) race. 

Tony Awards: Complete List of Nominations

Although we would all love to see “The King and I” leading lady Kelli O’Hara finally win with nomination #6, we fear that one of the two Tony champs in the race — Kristin Chenoweth (“On the Twentieth Century“) and Chita Rivera (“The Visit“) — will pick up another bookend. 

See David’s early Tony Awards predictions here, Sam’s here and mine here.  

Then get started with yours by predicting the Best Musical winner. Just click on the icon to the right or use our easy drag-and-drop menu below. Your picks will be pooled with all of the others to generate our official racetrack odds. Have this year’s best predictions and you’ll win a $100 Amazon gift card (if you qualify according to our contest rules).

In order to win our contest, you must have the highest accuracy at predicting the winners in all two dozen races (we have the four productions and four lead acting categories  ). But you may need more than that. If more than one user has the best percentage, the tie will be broken by most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each user gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

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