Tony Awards experts: ‘Fun Home’ will win Best Musical, ‘Something Rotten’ could spoil

Now that the last show to eligible has opened on Broadway, our dozen Experts have been busy updating their predictions before Tony Awards nominations are announced next Tuesday (April 28). Among our 12 Tonywatchers, nine of us think that the off-Broadway hit “Fun Home” will win Best Musical when these awards are handed out on June 7. And three are touting new arrival “Something Rotten.”

But it is Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – who turn out to be our smartest prognosticators. So, it’s vital that you give us your predictions. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds which are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds. Make the best predictions and you could win our contest prize: a $100 Amazon gift certificate and a place of honor in our famous leaderboards. (Be sure to take notice of the finer points of our contest rules HERE.)

When it came to predicting the Tony Awards nominations last year, the Experts tied the Top 24 Users (those users with the best scores predicting the 2013 nominations) with an overall accuracy rate of 86.67%. Our Editors were at 80.42% while all Users averaged 67.92%. (Click on each group’s name to see their overall results from last year.)

Even before the nominations were announced last year, the collective opinion of both our Experts and Top 24 Users had foreseen that “Gentlemen’s Guide to Murder” would win Best Musical. Both groups nailed all of the nominees as well. 

Predicting “Fun Home,” which swept the off-Broadway precursor prizes last season, to prevail are: Entertainment Weekly’s Melissa Bernardo and Jason ClarkThom Geier, Brian Lipton (Cititour),  Michael Musto (Out.com), Matt Windman (amNY) and all three of us — Tom O’NeilDavid Sheward and me — here at Gold Derby. That support gives it leading odds of 19/10.

Those backing “Something Rotten” are Andy Humm (Gay USA), Jesse Oxfeld (Forward) and Wayman Wong (Talkin’ Broadway). That translates into odds of 10/3.  

Our Experts expect the other two nominees for Best Musical to be “An American in Paris” (with odds of 4/1 to win) and, at 10/1, “Finding Neverland.” 

Tony Awards experts: ‘Curious Incident’ will win Best Play, ‘Wolf Hall’ could spoil

In order to win our contest, you must have the highest accuracy at predicting the nominees in the top eight categories (four productions and four acting). But you may need more than that. If more than one user has the best percentage, the tie will be broken by most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each user gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

That’s what happened when we tallied up prediction scores for last year’s Tony Awards nominations. Nine users were tied at the top with a jaw-dropping 95% accuracy. However, J F Petsche was our official winner because he scored 6,046 points (including 2,915 points for Play Revival where he had placed his 500 point bet). Compare that to second-place finisher Ted Stevenson  who scored 5,674 points (he put his 500 point bet on Musical Revival and earned 2,333 points there). 

Get started by making your own predictions for Best Musical using our easy drag-and-drop menu found at the bottom of this post.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until the morning of the nominations announcement on April 28. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

To enter your predictions for the other genre categories, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of the Billboard Music Awards and both Daytime and Primetime Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” and talent shows such as “American Idol” and “The Voice.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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