We were wringing our hands before nominations were announced: Would the TV academy embrace Amazon Prime as fully as they did Netflix in recent years? Would they vote for a comedy that skews dramatic? Yes and yes. "Transparent" is the most nominated new series of the year with 11 bids, and the most nominated comedy. Does that mean it's the frontrunner to win?
Its noms include important citations for writing, directing, casting and editing. In fact, it's the only comedy this year to contend in all four of those fields. And the surprise nomination for Gaby Hoffmann in the Comedy Supporting Actress race (over her better-known co-star Judith Light) further demonstrates that the TV academy really did watch the show and really did love it.
What's more, "Transparent" could benefit from the increased awareness of transgender rights that has been spurred by activists like "Orange is the New Black" star Laverne Cox and the coming out of former Olympian and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner.
With five-time Best Comedy champ "Modern Family" perhaps fatally hurt by its snub from writing and directing categories — no show has won Best Comedy without a nomination in either of those races since "Friends" in 2002 — we could be witnessing a repeat of 1999, when dramedy "Ally McBeal" thwarted five-time winner "Frasier."
According to our predictions, the series is locked in a tight race for Best Comedy with "Veep," which currently leads with 10/11 odds. But "Transparent" is right behind with 12/5 odds. It has support from four of our polled Experts: Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).
It's also predicted by one of our seven Editors — Rob Licuria — as well as more than 300 Users and eight of our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who scored highest predicting last year's Emmy winners): Harley Diamond, CeCe1991, csfader, LeviHill, wanderlust, TVFan365, MiMicMick and Royce_Vavrek.
Do you agree with them that "Transparent" will win?
Make your predictions and you could win one of our three prizes ($500, $300 and $200 Amazon gift certificates) as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users.
Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.
Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby's Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year's Emmys). Our Users scored 51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)
Which group will be victorious this year?
As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it's important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
Photo: The cast of "Transparent." Credit: Amazon/Everett/REX