According to our MTV Video Music Awards predictions, George Ezra is the man to beat for Artist to Watch; his breakthrough video "Budapest" leads with 7/5 odds. But the 22-year-old British crooner faces a formidable challenge from rapper Fetty Wap, whose hit "Trap Queen" is right behind with 3/1 odds; can he overtake the crooner?
According to our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did best predicting last year's VMA winners), it wouldn't be an upset at all. In fact, they strongly favor Fetty Wap to win. 13 of them say he'll win, compared to eight backing Ezra, one predicting FKA Twigs's "Pendulum" and one who favors James Bay's "Hold Back the River." Do they know something the rest of us don't know?
For one, "Trap Queen" is a bigger hit according to Billboard. It peaked at number-two on the Hot 100 singles chart on May 16, while "Budapest" peaked on May 30 – at number-32. YouTube reinforces this disparity. "Trap Queen" has been viewed more than 200 million times, compared to about 60 million for "Budapest."
The good news for Ezra is that even if he loses the VMA on Sunday night, he could get the last laugh. He's a soulful singer-songwriter in the same mold as Sam Smith, who was nominated in this category at the VMAs last year. Smith lost to girl group Fifth Harmony for their video "Miss Movin On," but a few months later he swept the Grammys. So there might be good news for Ezra one way or another.
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Last year, our Editors, Users and Top 24 Users all tied with an accuracy rate of 37.50%, so we're all hoping for redemption this time around. (Click on any of those groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)
Which group will be victorious this year?
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Photo: Fetty Wap at MTV Movie Awards, 2015. Credit: Picture Perfect/REX
Photo: George Ezra performs at V Festival, 2015. Credit: Tom Oldham/REX