The American Cinema Editors nominations announced Monday cited our Oscar frontrunner for Best Editing, "Mad Max: Fury Road," along with three of the other four films we're predicting for nominations in that race: "The Revenant," "The Martian" and "The Big Short" — but not Best Picture frontrunner "Spotlight." (Click here for the complete list of nominations.)
Even though the Eddie Awards divide editing between dramas and comedies, the guild did not make room for "Spotlight" in the drama race where "Mad Max," "The Martian" and "The Revenant" face off against "Sicario" and "Star Wars: The Force Awakens."
The winner of the Golden Eddie has proven to be one of the best indicators of which film takes home the Best Picture Oscar. Since 1990, the film that came up with the ACE went on to win the top prize at the Academy Awards 17 times.
In six of the eight years when the ACE barometer was wrong, the Eddie champ was at least a contender for Best Picture, including last year when both the drama winner ("Boyhood") and the comedy champ ("The Grand Budapest Hotel") were among the seven Best Picture nominees that lost to "Birdman."
In 2007 neither of the Eddie winners — "The Bourne Ultimatum" nor "Sweeney Todd" — made the final five contenders for Best Picture at the Oscars, and in 1999 the same fate befell "The Matrix" and "Being John Malkovich."
Though ACE has a good track record as a Best Picture predictor and a great one for forecasting who will win the Editing Oscar (19 out of the last 25 years), it is surprising that it is not all-knowing when it comes to the Editing Oscar nominations.
Since 1992, when the Eddies went to five nominees from three, 101 of the 115 Oscar nominees for Editing had first reaped a Golden Eddie nod.
Last year all five Oscar nominees for Best Editing first reaped Eddie bids: eventual Oscar champ "Whiplash" as well as ACE champs "Boyhood" and "Grand Budapest," plus "American Sniper" and "The Imitation Game."
In 2013 four of the Eddie nominees made the cut at the Oscars ("Dallas Buyers Club" got the fifth slot). In both 2012 and in 2011 five of the Eddie nominees comprised the Oscar slate. In 2010, four Eddie nominees contended at the Oscars ("127 Hours" got the fifth slot) while in 2009, only three of five ACE drama nominees — "Avatar," "District 9" and "The Hurt Locker" — reaped Oscar bids with "Inglorious Basterds" and "Precious" added to the mix.
Although this track record appears impressive enough, ACE doubled its chances of getting it right when it split Dramas and Comedy/Musicals into separate kudos in 1999. Seven years ago, the Comedy/Musical Eddie went to Stephen Schaffer for "WALL-E." Schaffer — a 2004 nominee for "The Incredibles" — made history with this win as it was the first time an animated film had taken one of these kudos since they were first handed out back in 1950.
The 66th annual edition of the Eddie Awards take place on Jan. 29 at the Beverly Hilton.
What do you think is going to win Best Editing at the Oscars? Make your Oscar predictions using the menu to the right or below.
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"Mad Max" photo credit: Warner Bros. Pictures
"Star Wars" photo credit: Walt Disney Pictures
"Spotlight" photo credit: Open Road Films