At the 2016 American Music Awards, which air on Sunday, November 20, on ABC, Drake enters with the most nominations (12), so it may be no surprise that we’re expecting him to leave with the most awards as well. He’s the frontrunner to win five, which will be the first five AMAs he’s ever won.
That’s according to our official racetrack odds, which are determined by the predictions of Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s AMA winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ AMA results, and hundreds of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Between 2010 and 2015 Drake earned nine nominations but never won any, and that drought seems likely to end. We’re betting that he’ll win Collaboration of the Year and Soul/R&B Song for “Work,” his duet with Rihanna, and that he’ll sweep the Rap/Hip-Hop field, taking the awards for Favorite Artist, Album (“Views”) and Song (“Hotline Bling”).
Next in line is Adele, who we predict will sweep all four of her nominations: Pop/Rock Female Artist, Album (“25”) and Song (“Hello”), along with Adult Contemporary Artist. Adele was also among the top 10 nominees for Artist of the Year, and for a while we thought she’d win that too, but she surprisingly failed to make the cut when that category was narrowed down to the final five earlier this week.
The same thing happened to Beyonce. She also failed to advance to the final round for Artist of the Year, but we expect her to win her other three nominations: Soul/R&B Female Artist and Album (“Lemonade”), as well as Tour of the Year.
We’re only predicting two wins for Justin Bieber, but one of them will be Artist of the Year. It would be his third victory in the top contest, tying the record currently held by Taylor Swift. He’ll also take Pop/Rock Male Artist for the third time, which would also tie the record in that category.
Two other artists are expected to win two awards apiece: Rihanna (Collaboration and Soul/R&B Song for “Work”) and Carrie Underwood (Country Female Artist and Country Album for “Storyteller”). Do you agree with our picks? Check out our complete predictions by artist below.
Collaboration of the Year (“Work,” with Rihanna)
Rap/Hip-Hop Album (“Views”)
Rap/Hip-Hop Song (“Hotline Bling”)
Soul/R&B Song (“Work,” with Rihanna)
Pop/Rock Female Artist
Pop/Rock Album (“25”)
Pop/Rock Song (“Hello”)
Adult Contemporary Artist
Soul/R&B Female Artist
Soul/R&B Album (“Lemonade”)
Tour of the Year
Artist of the Year
Pop/Rock Male Artist
Collaboration of the Year (“Work,” with Drake)
Soul/R&B Song (“Work,” with Drake)
Country Female Artist
Country Album (“Storyteller”)
Country Male Artist
Electronic Dance Music Artist
Pop/Rock Duo or Group
FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE
Country Duo or Group
Contemporary Inspirational Artist
New Artist of the Year
Country Song (“Die a Happy Man”)
TWENTY ONE PILOTS
Alternative Rock Artist
Soul/R&B Male Artist
Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts as often as you like before winners are announced on Nov. 20. Just click “Save” when you’ve settled on your choices. You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, bragging rights and a place of honor on our leaderboard. Our racetrack odds change as you make your predictions, just as they do when you bet on the Emmys, Oscars, Golden Globes and more. Be sure to read our contest rules and sound off on the AMAs race in our music forum.