“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” will dominate the MTV Movie Awards according to the combined predictions of our Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s winners and the hundreds of total Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors. But there are two “Star Wars” stars in the running for Best Breakthrough Performance. Could they split the vote and open the door for Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck“)?
As of this writing, Daisy Ridley is out front with support from 14 of our Top 24, who give her 4/5 odds to prevail. And all of our editors agree: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria and I favor Ridley’s star-making performance as burgeoning Jedi Rey.
But Ridley faces her co-star John Boyega, who plays rebellious storm trooper Finn. This is one of just two nominations for Boyega compared to four for Ridley, but Boyega is also a fan-favorite. He recently won another audience-voted award: the Rising Star prize at the BAFTAs, where he defeated Taron Egerton, Bel Powley and two actors who also contend here: Dakota Johnson and Oscar-champ Brie Larson.
However, only one of our top users is predicting Boyega to win here, giving him 16/1 odds. Are we underestimating him? Or could he and Ridley potentially split the “Star Wars” fan vote, opening the door for one of their rivals?
Emmy-winning TV star Schumer ranks second for her first film starring role in the Judd Apatow-directed “Trainwreck.” She has support from five of our Top 24, who give her 7/2 odds. In addition to Breakthrough Performance, she’s also nominated for Best Comedic Performance and Best Kiss this year. She also hosted the MTV Movie Awards last year, would could give her an additional boost. Hosting the ceremony doesn’t usually correlate with winning, but Rebel Wilson actually won this category when she emceed the ceremony in 2013.
Two more top users are predicting Larson for “Room,” giving her 10/1 odds. Millions watched her win the Best Actress Oscar for her performance in February, but “Room” is the least seen film represented in this category, which may limit her voter base at these awards.
Our last top user is predicting #O’Shea Jackson Jr.# for playing his real-life father Ice Cube in the NWA biopic “Straight Outta Compton.” That gives Jackson 18/1 odds from our top users.
Rounding out the category is Johnson for her role in the blockbuster erotic romance “Fifty Shades of Grey,” but she has no backing from editors or users to win this contest. However, we’re predicting that she is a much more formidable contender for Best Kiss with her “Fifty Shades” co-star Jamie Dornan.
Make your MTV Movie Awards Awards predictions starting with Best Breakthrough Performance to the right or at the bottom of this post.
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Photo credits: “Star Wars” by Walt Disney Pictures; “Trainwreck” by Universal Pictures