Critics’ Choice Awards nominations: Oscar preview again?

The Critics’ Choice Awards announces nominations on Thursday (Dec. 1) with the winners to be revealed just 10 days later (Dec. 11) during a kudocast set to air live on A&E beginning at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. These awards bestowed by the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. (BFCA) are renowned as one of the best barometers for predicting the Oscars. Over their 21-year history, these awards have previewed 13 Best Picture Oscar winners as well as 16 Best Director, 14 Best Actor, 12 Best Actress, 11 Supporting Actor and 14 Supporting Actress champs. 

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And with many of the Critics’ Choice Awards categories having six slots, they have an edge at foreseeing the eventual five Oscar nominees. Indeed, last year these kudos forecast 30 of the 33 Oscar nominees (91%) in the top six races, missing only the “The Big Short” surge by director Adam McKay and supporting actor Christian Bale as well as the bid by “Room” helmer Lenny Abrahamson.

Of last year’s 11 Critics’ Choice nominees for Best Picture, all but “Carol,” “Sicario” and last-minute addition “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” reaped Oscar bids for Best Picture. “Spotlight” won over the critics first before prevailing at the Oscars. In 2014, the BFCA lineup included seven of the eight Best Picture contenders when it went with “Boyhood” over eventual Oscar winner “Birdman.” In 2013 the BFCA previewed eight of the nine Oscar nominees for Best Picture. “12 Years a Slave,” which had won over many regional critics but been snubbed by the three major print critics awards (New York, Los Angeles and National Society), picked up this prize before going on to take the Oscar. And in 2012 the BFCA foresaw eight of the the nine Best Picture nominees. Both the BFCA and the Oscars were awarded to “Argo.”

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In both 2014 and 2015 the BFCA nominated just three directors who went on to be Oscar nominees and in each instance went with someone other than eventual back-to-back Oscar winner Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu who prevailed first for “Birdman” and then “The Revenant.” In 2014, the Critics’ Choice champ was Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”) while last year it was George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”). In 2013, it foresaw four of the Best Director Oscar nominees and Alfonso Cuaron (“Gravity”) won both races. And in 2012, the BFCA presaged three of the Best Director Oscar nominees. However, it was Oscar-snubbed Ben Affleck (“Argo) who won the Critics’ Choice award while Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) took home the Oscar.

All five of last year’s Best Actor nominees at the Oscars first contended here, with Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”) winning both awards. In 2015, the BFCA previewed just three of the Oscar nominees and went with Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) over eventual Oscar champ Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”). In 2013, the Critics’ Choice awards foresaw four of the five Oscar nominees and Matthew McConaughey won both prizes for “Dallas Buyers Club.” And in 2012, the BFCA predicted all five of the the eventual Best Actor nominees with Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”) winning both awards.

Likewise, all five of last year’s Best Actress nominees at the Oscars first contended here, with Brie Larson (“Room”) winning both awards. In 2014, the BFCA also foresaw the five Oscar nominees as well as the winner [Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”). In 2013, the Critics Choice Best Actress roster included four of the Oscar contenders with Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”) taking both races. And in 2012, the BFCA predicted the Best Actress lineup at the Oscars: Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”) won over the critics but lost the Oscar to Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook).

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Last year, four of the six Critics’ Choice nominees for Best Supporting Actor went on to contend at the Oscars. While Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”) won this race at the Critics’ Choice, he lost the Oscar to Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”). In 2014, these awards previewed the Oscar line-up and the winner of both races was J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”). In 2013, four of the eventual Oscar nominees first reaped Critics’ Choice bids and Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”)  claimed both prizes. And in 2012, the BFCA foresaw four of the five Oscar nominees but snubbed eventual Oscar winner Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”). The BFCA winner was Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”).

As with the two lead races, all five of last year’s Oscar nominees for Best Supporting Actress contended first at these awards. Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) won both prizes. In 2014, the BFCA foresaw four of the Oscar nominees and Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) won here before claiming the Academy Award. Likewise in 2013, the BFCA previewed four of the Oscar contenders and Lupita Nyongo (“12 Years a Slave”) won both awards. It did the same in 2012 when Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”) won over both the BFCA and the academy.

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictionsWeigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

 

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