The Emmys don’t have precursor awards the same way the Oscars do. While the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and SAG Awards honor TV as well as film, they don’t clarify the opinions of the TV academy nearly as well as they do for the motion picture academy. Consider that last year’s Globe winner for Best Drama, “The Affair,” ended up completely shut out of the Emmys, and the Critics’ Choice for Best Drama in 2015, “The Americans,” was far from the Emmys’ choice.
There are noteworthy exceptions to that rule, however. Shows like “Homeland” and “Transparent” made a killing in their first Globes’ contests and followed those with multiple Emmy wins. And Viola Davis‘s SAG win for Best Drama Actress for “How to Get Away with Murder” in January 2015 was followed by a historic victory a few months later (she was the first black actress to win that Emmy contest).
Of those three awards groups, SAG is probably the most reliable barometer for forecasting the Emmys, since it’s also an industry event and it usually favors a more conservative list of repeat nominees and winners, as the Emmys often do. For example, every SAG winner this year has already been nominated for or won Emmys for their respective roles: drama champs Viola Davis and Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards“), comedy victors Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black“) and Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”), and movie/mini winners Queen Latifah (“Bessie“) and Idris Elba (“Luther“).
The Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, on the other hand, tend to think outside the box, lobbying for underdogs and under-the-radar candidates — especially new shows, which the TV academy is often slow to catch on to, if at all. This year, the Globes lavished praise on the Amazon comedy “Mozart in the Jungle,” while Critics’ Choice picked Netflix’s “Master of None.” On the drama side, both groups rewarded USA’s “Mr. Robot,” which according to our early Emmy odds is the strongest bet among all of this season’s new shows, comedy or drama.
Globe acting winners like Maura Tierney (“The Affair“) and Gael Garcia Bernal (“Mozart in the Jungle”) and Critics’ picks Carrie Coon (“The Leftovers“) and Constance Zimmer (“UnReal“) will also have to get past a glut of returning Emmy favorites in order to score bids this summer.
“Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” star Rachel Bloom won both Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards for her breakthrough performance, and if those were film awards she’d be close to a lock for an Oscar nom, but instead she’ll have to wonder if Emmy voters will finally acknowledge the existence of the CW network; fellow CW star Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin“) was snubbed at the Emmys last year despite the love of critics and the Golden Globes.
Our forum posters are currently discussing which Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice winners will earn Emmy nominations and which may be snubbed. Read a couple of their comments below, and click here to join the debate.
Joseph: The Globe winners could struggle. I can’t see Gael Garcia Bernal getting in — I really can’t understand the love for “Mozart in the Jungle,” and I don’t think it will get in anywhere other than with the HFPA. Rachel Bloom has a shot in a weakened Comedy Actress field, but the CW bias is clear, especially with Gina Rodriguez not getting in last year. I doubt Lady Gaga because the Movie/Mini Lead Actress field is so good. Same with Maura Tierney with the Drama Supporting Actress category, which is stacked, plus it doesn’t help that “The Affair” was completely shut out last year.
bondzzz: I’m also very hesitant to include both “Mozart in the Jungle” and Gael Garcia Bernal. Rachel Bloom is in my predictions currently, but just because that last spot is a bit hard for me to predict who the academy will choose. I do have “Mr. Robot” and Rami Malek in, but I won’t be surprised if they get snubbed as well. I think Christian Slater has the best chance cos he’s at least kinda known. I don’t think Lady Gaga will be nominated. I don’t think I have anyone from that series in as of now. I had Paulson at first but then I removed her.
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