Not so fast, “Game of Thrones.” Are we all in for a Best Drama Series shockeroo at the Emmy Awards in the form of FX’s underdog “The Americans”? Despite nabbing a leading 23 nominations, “Game of Thrones” is no longer the unanimous choice to win among Gold Derby’s Emmy experts drawn from major media outlets.
Of the 13 prognosticators who’ve chimed in with their early Emmy predictions, 11 predict a repeat win for “Game of Thrones,” which translates to leading 4/9 odds. They are: Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).
And the two experts going rogue in forecasting “The Americans” are: Eric Deggans (NPR) and Kerr Lordygan (Rotten Tomatoes). This results in odds of 18/1, good enough for fourth place in the experts’ overall rankings.
The writing and directing races at the Emmys are often seen as a crystal ball that foretells what’ll win Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series. “Game of Thrones” leads its competitors with two directing bids and one writing nom. It also earned an impressive six bids for acting: Peter Dinklage, Kit Harington, Lena Headey, Emilia Clarke, Maisie Williams and Max von Sydow.
Not to be outdone, “The Americans” pops up in the writing race for the episode “Persona Non Grata” and earned a trio of acting noms: leads Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell, and last year’s guest actress winner Margo Martindale.
“Downton Abbey” (20/1 odds) is the only other drama to appear in both of the key writing/directing categories, with one bid in each. Meanwhile, “Homeland” (40/1 odds) pops up in directing while “Mr. Robot” (10/3 odds) contends in writing.
Does that mean “House of Cards” (16/1 odds) and “Better Call Saul” (40/1 odds) are out of this race completely? Looking back through Emmy history, the last time a show won Best Drama Series without a corresponding writing or directing nom was “The Practice” in 1999. So, while it can happen, it is extremely rare.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions right here. You’ll compete to win our contest prizes for best picks — $500 (first place), $300 (second place) and $200 (third place) in Amazon gift certificates — a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmy nominations). Be sure to read our contest rules.