While the dust is still settling on the Oscars, some might say it’s a bit too early to make an official Emmy prediction. After all, the date of the 68th Emmys telecast is still listed as “TBD” at the official TV academy website. But at this early stage, I’m ready to make a bold Emmy forecast that Bobby Cannavale will win Best Drama Actor for HBO’s “Vinyl.” Don’t believe me? Think I’m crazy? Scroll down to see my five reasons why I think Cannavale will win the Emmy, using the letters V-I-N-Y-L.
1. Voters love him
Cannavale already has not one, but two Emmys on his mantel. In 2005, he won Best Comedy Guest Actor for “Will & Grace” and most recently he shocked awards pundits by taking home Best Drama Supporting Actor for “Boardwalk Empire” (2013). He was also nominated twice for guesting as a doctor on “Nurse Jackie” (2012, 2013). TV academy members have proven that they’ll vote for him whether he’s guest-starring as a gay cop in a half-hour sitcom or playing a murderous villain in a highly acclaimed period piece. Talk about versatile.
2. It’s an open race
This year’s Best Drama Actor race is unique in that no former winners are returning to claim another prize. Last year’s champ Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”) is gone, as is four-time winner Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) and 2013 surprise victor Jeff Daniels (“The Newsroom”). In fact, only three of last year’s nominees are even eligible — Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”), Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”) and Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”) — making this one of the more open races at the 2016 Emmys.
3. Network sweep
Last year we saw an unprecedented Emmy sweep for HBO with 43 wins including Best Drama (“Game of Thrones”), Best Comedy (“Veep”), Best Limited Series (“Olive Kitteridge”), Best TV Movie (“Bessie”) and multiple acting triumphs. If HBO’s domination continues again this year, might “Vinyl” and Cannavale simply go along for the ride?
4. Yes, episodes matter
Many of last year’s acting winners arguably had the best episode submissions in their categories, including Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tony Hale (“Veep”), Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”) and Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”). Sure, there will always be exceptions to the rule — we’re looking at you, Margo Martindale (“The Americans”) — but episodes do still matter. And Cannavale has a doozy. In the two-hour pilot of “Vinyl,” his character Richie Finestra, a 1970s record executive, has a midlife crisis that includes drinking, drugs, murder, music and an extremely impactful final shot. It’ll be tough to beat.
5. Legendary producers
It’s hard to talk about “Vinyl” without mentioning its A-list producing team comprised of Oscar winner Martin Scorsese, rock legend Mick Jagger and “Sopranos”/”Boardwalk Empire” vet Terence Winter. Seeing those names in FYC Emmy campaigns, DVD screeners and billboards all around Hollywood will ensure that “Vinyl” gets seen by every TV academy member under the sun.
Who do you think will be nominated at the Emmys as Best Drama Actor? Make your early Emmy predictions using the menu to the right or below. Change them as often as you until nominations morning on July 14.
Photo Credit: HBO