[WATCH] Emmy predictions slugfest: Will Drama Guest Actress go to Ellen Burstyn, Laurie Metcalf, or …

Who will win the Emmy for Best Drama Guest Actress? After watching the episodes submitted by each of the nominees, my Gold Derby colleagues Marcus James DixonRiley Chow, Zach Laws, Amanda Spears and I got together via webcam (watch above) to share our thoughts on who we think will win and why.

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The nominees are Ellen Burstyn (“House of Cards”) for the episode “Chapter 41,” Allison Janney (“Masters of Sex”) for the episode “Matters of Gravity,” Margo Martindale (“The Americans”) for the episode “The Magic of David Copperfield,” Laurie Metcalf (“Horace and Pete”) for “Episode 103,” Molly Parker (“House of Cards”) for the episode “Chapter 45” and Carrie Preston (“The Good Wife”) for the episode “Targets.”

“As far as I am concerned, this category is a slam dunk! Ellen Burstyn is going to win for ‘House of Cards’!” Dixon proclaims as his opening remark. However, I am not so sure that this category is a done deal, and argue that three-time Emmy champ Metcalf (“Roseanne,” 1992-1994) is the frontrunner. She reaped three acting nominations this year (in addition to this category, she’s also up for Best Comedy Guest Actress for “The Big Bang Theory” and Best Comedy Actress for “Getting On”).

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“I understand Ellen Burstyn is the favorite, and she’s excellent in ‘House of Cards.’ But once you watch Laurie Metcalf in ‘Horace and Pete,’ how could you not predict her?” I ask. “I think this is the best performance on any medium of the year. The buzz for her when that episode was released was pretty strong for her, and I think because of that, she received two other Emmy nominations. I could not, in good conscience, not predict her to win this and I think there’s a strong possibility if they are watching the episodes.”

Chow agrees that Metcalf could be a surprise winner. “I think Rob is actually on to something when he said that ’Horace and Pete’ carried Laurie Metcalf in to get three nominations this year,” he explains, adding, “this category is fun, we have the last three winners here, as Margo Martindale, Allison Janney and Carrie Preston are all back.”

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He smartly draws parallels to last year when Beau Bridges was the frontrunner in the Best Drama Guest Actor category for his role on “Masters of Sex.” He was the safe bet as a three-time past Emmy winner who guested on a show that the voters were watching. But Reg E. Cathey won for “House of Cards,” despite not being in a lot of his submitted episode. Based on this logic, Chow thinks that Metcalf fits the bill if the voters continue thinking outside the box. That she is having a really great year helps her too as Emmy voters “really set out to recognize her and this is the nomination that they would want to rally around.”

Spears agrees that after watching Metcalf’s performance, voters will be hard pressed not to check her name off their ballots as “it is ten minutes of just her face and you just can’t look away from this performance … she is incredible!”

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While Laws agrees that Metcalf is a strong possibility, he has her in second place in his predictions behind Burstyn. He believes that voters appear to have watched “Horace and Pete” enough to have nominated Metcalf, but the show should have been stronger, having only received that one acting nomination and a nomination for its film editing. “Where’s Alan Alda, where’s Jessica Lange, where’s Edie Falco, Steve Buscemi, even Louis C.K. he asks, arguing that the safer bet is to predict Burstyn. “This is a woman who has won two Emmys and an Oscar and she got nominated for a 30 seconds in ‘Mrs. Harris’ for god sake! She had a fantastic season in ‘House of Cards’ and the way her episode ends is really surprising and dramatic.”

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