[WATCH] Emmy predictions slugfest on Movie/Mini Supporting Actress: Jean Smart, Regina King, Kathy Bates …

With 1-to-3 odds on Gold Derby, Jean Smart is favoured to win her fourth Emmy this weekend, for “Fargo” as Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress, having received the equivalent Critics’ Choice Award this past January. Fellow Gold Derby contributors Zach Laws and Amada Spears sided with the consensus in our slugfest on the category (watch below), but Smart ranks way down in fourth place in my predictions. I doubt that she has more support among voters than fellow multiple-Emmy-winning co-star Ted Danson, who was snubbed in Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor.

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I explain, “Smart is an Emmy winner and you’d think that if she’s playing a mob boss that you’d get fireworks, but you don’t. What she does have is an easier category; there’s nobody from ‘The People v. O.J. Simpson’ here, so I think that she was able to get the nomination that way, but she’s not doing anything new that will excite the voters and get the number-one votes.” I even think that she should consider herself lucky to be nominated: “Smart is also not somebody who always gets in. She won for ‘Samantha Who?;’ but she was snubbed the very next year — I think when there’s space, she gets in and this is one of those times.”

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Amanda and I found common ground with Sarah Paulson (“American Horror Story: Hotel”) as our second-most-likely to win, going against the Gold Derby collective, which has her ranked last with 50-to-1 odds. However, we disagree in our justification. “If she wins this race, it probably means she’s not going to win Best Actress,” Amanda thinks, as she suspects that votes here will be to compensate for her impending loss for “The People v. O.J. Simpson” in the leading category. I theorize that a win for Paulson in the supporting race would instead signal a groundswell of support for her as an actress overall and that votes here would be to “seal the deal” so that Paulson becomes an Emmy winner in both categories.

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The other nominees in this category include last year’s winner Regina King (“American Crime”), Kathy Bates (“American Horror Story: Hotel”) who won in 2014, and Melissa Leo (“All the Way”) who won a different category three years ago (Best Comedy Guest Actress, “Louie”), but I am going out on a limb for the category’s only first-time Primetime Emmy nominee: Olivia Colman (“The Night Manager”). Zach summed up the argument for her, noting, “She has a lot to do, and she could be one of those working actresses that people love and is finally getting her due, much like King was last year.”

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