“All the Way” is the most nominated telefilm at the Emmys this year with eight bids. Adapted by Emmy-winning director Jay Roach (“Recount,” “Game Change”) from the Tony-winning Broadway play about the presidency of Lyndon Johnson, it’s now the frontrunner to win Best TV Movie according to the predictions of the Expert TV journalists we’ve polled.
The experts are nearly unanimous: 17 out of 18 of them predict “All the Way” will prevail, giving it leading 2/13 odds: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Kerr Lordygan (Rotten Tomatoes), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).
Only one expert disagrees with the consensus: Michael Ausiello (TV Line), who thinks “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride” will pull off an upset, giving it 14/1 odds. It wouldn’t be the first time the British mystery series surprised us: in 2014 it was in the race with the episode “His Last Vow” and pulled off major upsets to become the most awarded program of the year with seven victories, including for its actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Martin Freeman — but even then it fell short of winning Best TV Movie.
“Abominable Bride” has six nominations overall this year, and unlike “His Last Vow” it’s absent from writing and directing categories, but it did win one of its Creative Arts categories this past weekend: Best Supporting Visual Effects.
None of our experts are predicting the other three nominees in the category. “Confirmation” ranks third with 40/1 odds. It tells the story of the sexual harassment accusations brought against Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas by law professor Anita Hill, but it has just one other Emmy nomination, for lead actress Kerry Washington as Hill.
“Luther” gets 50/1 odds. The BBC America telefilm is a continuation of the mystery series. This time around the title detective, played by lead-acting nominee Idris Elba, is on the hunt for a cannibal serial killer.
Rounding out the category is the Netflix special “A Very Murray Christmas” with 100/1 odds. It’s directed by Oscar-winner Sofia Coppola and stars Bill Murray, who won an Emmy just last year for his supporting role in “Olive Kitteridge.” But despite its pedigree its only other nomination was Best Musical Direction, which it lost at the Creative Arts Awards to “Danny Elfman’s Music from the Films of Tim Burton.”
Gold Derby’s Editors, who cover awards year-round, agree that “All the Way” is the frontrunner. All seven of us predict it unanimously: O’Neil, Sheehan, Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and myself.
Our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmys, agree with the experts and editors. Twenty-two predict “All the Way,” while “Luther” and “Sherlock” have support from one top user apiece.
There’s slightly more dissent among our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine their predictions from the last two years’ Emmys, but they still give “All the Way” a sizable advantage. Eighteen of them are betting on it, compared to two for “Confirmation” and one for “Luther.”
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions right here. You’ll compete to win our contest prizes for best picks — $500 (first place), $300 (second place) and $200 (third place) in Amazon gift certificates — a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys). Be sure to read our contest rules.