Golden Globe TV predictions: ‘Atlanta’ will win big in comedy contests

The Golden Globe for Best Musical/Comedy Series often goes to a first-year show, as was the case in 2006 (“Ugly Betty”), 2009 (“Glee”), 2012 (“Girls”), 2013 (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”) and 2014 (“Transparent”). So it comes as no surprise that this year’s frontrunner is a recent debut: FX’s “Atlanta,” about two cousins who work their way up through the rap industry. It aired its 10-episode first season this fall to widespread acclaim and was quickly renewed for a second season.

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These official odds are derived from the predictions of Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Golden Globe TV nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Golden Globe TV noms, and hundreds of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

We’re betting on “Atlanta” to win Best Musical/Comedy Series, giving it leading 14/5 odds. We also think its star and creator, Donald Glover, will win Best TV Musical/Comedy Actor — he gets 11/5 odds. It would be the first nomination and win for Glover, who previously worked as a writer for “30 Rock,” spent five seasons co-starring in the cult hit comedy “Community” and has been nominated for two Grammys for his hip-hop music under the stage name Childish Gambino.

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“Atlanta’s” closest competition appears to be HBO’s black comedy “Divorce,” about a longtime married couple (Sarah Jessica Parker and Thomas Haden Church) who decide to call it quits. It gets 3/1 odds for Best Musical/Comedy Series, while Parker, a Globes darling, is the frontrunner to win Best TV Musical/Comedy Actress with 21/10 odds. No one loves Parker more than the Globes; she won this category a whopping four times for her previous HBO series, “Sex and the City” (1999, 2000, 2001, 2003), but she hasn’t been nominated at these awards since her bid for the 2005 big-screen comedy “The Family Stone.”

Veep” is next with 7/2 odds. Though the series has won Best Comedy at the Emmys for the last two years in a row, and star Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won Best Comedy Actress there a record five years in a row, “Veep” has never won a single Golden Globe. Nevertheless it’s expected to receive nominations this year for both the series and its star.

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We can also expect to see another returning comedy back in the lineup: “Transparent” ill be nominated in the top race for the third straight year, while lead actor Jeffrey Tambor can expect to pick up a third bid (he won in 2014). And Judith Light is a strong bet for her second consecutive nomination in the catch-all TV Supporting Actress category, which combines actors from comedies, dramas, movies and miniseries.

Find out who else we’re betting on below. The predicted winners are indicated in gold, and potential spoilers are in italics.

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BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY SERIES
“Atlanta” — 14/5
“Divorce” — 3/1
“Veep” — 7/2
“Transparent” — 4/1
“Black-ish” — 9/2

Spoilers: “Insecure” (11/2); “Mozart in the Jungle” (15/2); “One Mississippi” (15/2)

BEST TV MUSICAL/COMEDY ACTOR
Donald Glover, “Atlanta” — 11/5
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” — 13/5
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish” — 4/1
Gael Garcia Bernal, “Mozart in the Jungle” — 5/1
Nick Nolte, “Graves” — 6/1

Spoilers: Thomas Haden Church, “Divorce” (9/1); Ted Danson, “The Good Place” (14/1), Thomas Middleditch, “Silicon Valley” (16/1)

BEST TV MUSICAL/COMEDY ACTRESS
Sarah Jessica Parker, “Divorce” — 21/10
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” — 3/1
Issa Rae, “Insecure” — 7/2
Minnie Driver, “Speechless” — 9/2
Kristen Bell, “The Good Place” — 6/1

Spoilers: Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” (6/1); Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (13/2); Tig Notaro, “One Mississippi” (15/2)

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BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, “The People v. O.J. Simpson” — 2/1
Kit Harington, “Game of Thrones” — 7/2
Hugh Laurie, “The Night Manager” — 4/1
Louie Anderson, “Baskets” — 5/1
John Travolta, “The People v. O.J. Simpson” — 5/1

Spoilers: Christian Slater, “Mr. Robot” (13/2); Tobia Menzies, “Outlander” (15/2); John Lithgow, “The Crown” (9/1)

BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things” — 11/5
Constance Zimmer, “UnReal” — 7/2
Maura Tierney, “The Affair” — 4/1
Olivia Colman, “The Night Manager” — 9/2
Judith Light, “Transparent” — 9/2

Spoilers: Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones” (13/2); Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Roanoke” (12/1); Miley Cyrus, “Crisis in Six Scenes” (12/1)

Make your Golden Globe predictions now; change them till Dec. 12

Make your Golden Globes TV Awards picks now and tell industry insiders which shows and performers you have out front to win on January 8. You can keep changing them until just before nominations are announced on December 12 at 5 am PT/8 am ET. But it is important to register your initial predictions now to let Hollywood know who has the inside track for these kudos. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.

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